According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in November, the price of waste paper and corrugated paper continued to show an upward trend, which was gratifying in the whole month, while the price of corrugated paper was increased frequently, which also led to the rise of the demand price of waste paper. On November 29, the average price of waste yellow board paper was 2,064.29 RMB/ton, up 5.09% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month. On November 29, the average price of corrugated paper was 3,406.67 RMB/ton, up 5.25% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.
According to the observation of market changes, in the first ten days of November, the overall price of national waste yellow board paper increased steadily, and the trend of price increase gradually expanded from south to north. Due to the steady growth of demand for finished paper, the rise of national waste price played a strong support. In the middle of November, the waste paper market began to rise in the north and stabilize in the south. With the gradual expansion of the rising trend, the purchase price of waste paper in the southern region began to rise towards the end of the month, and the price hike in each region was about 30-50 RMB/ton. With the influence of the demand during the e-commerce ‘double 11’ peak season, the national box and board corrugated paper market has been in an upward trend. After that, the market price of the finished paper has been stronger all the way, driving the market price of waste paper to rise generally.
On November 5, the 14th batch of waste paper import list was publicized and released, and the amount of foreign waste was relatively reduced. This year, the overall number of foreign waste approvals was significantly reduced, which also led to the gradual expansion of the gap of national waste paper, especially in the second half of the year. In addition, as the end of the year approaches, paper mills continue to raise the purchase price of waste paper to stimulate the arrival of waste paper, which may also be an early preparation for next year's waste paper gap. At present, due to the impact of downstream demand support, the price of waste paper may still have an opportunity to rise, but in order to control the production cost, the paper factory may have limited space to rise.
In terms of corrugated Npaper, according to statistics, it has risen for the ninth time in nearly three months. In the whole month of November, the price increased all the way. This year, the consumption effect brought by the e-commerce ‘double 11’ has also had a greater impact on the packaging paper market. The demand for cartons is surging, and the e-commerce packaging volume of cartons factory has doubled. In addition, the situation that the base paper and paperboard are rising together has emerged. Due to the excessive consumption of base paper and the insufficient supply of stock, the stock of base paper in the secondary plant continues to decrease, driving the price up. From the perspective of previous years, November should be a month with relatively flat demand, but in 2019, due to the impact of environmental protection and economic environment, the paper mill shut down frequently, resulting in lower base paper output than in previous years. In addition, this Spring Festival is earlier than those in previous years, and driven by e-commerce ‘double 12’, New Year’s Day and other holidays, laying a foundation for the rise of base paper price.
According to the paper analysts of SunSirs, in terms of the current market atmosphere, there will be a certain upward space for the price of waste paper and base paper. With the arrival of New Year’s Day and Spring Festival stock season, the sales of the paper factory is basically in a state of no pressure, bringing the confidence of the paper factory in raising the price. In addition, the rise in the price of waste paper makes the purchasing cost of the base paper factory go up, which promotes the price of finished products to continue to go up. It is expected that the price of waste paper base paper will still be in a positive upward trend in the short term.
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