According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper will turn downward after stabilizing in June 2025. On June 26th, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,570 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.02% compared to the average price on June 1st.

In terms of upstream raw materials: In June, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang Province first increased and then decreased, while the domestic price of waste paper decreased more and increased less. On June 26th, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang Province was 1,504 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.92% compared to the average price on June 1st. In early June, with the end of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the continuous operation of paper mills led to a slight decrease in waste paper inventory. Some paper mills raised the price of waste paper to increase the amount of waste paper received in order to fill the waste paper inventory. Starting from mid to late June, the rainy season is approaching in some areas, and the shipment of waste paper from packaging stations is relatively active, resulting in an increase in the arrival of waste paper from paper mills and a return to high waste paper inventory. Subsequently, the prices of waste paper in the market experienced a large-scale decline from south to north, which weakened the shipping enthusiasm of packaging stations. The downward trend continued towards the end of the month.

On the supply side: In early June, the production of paper mills operated steadily. With the improvement and recovery of the export market, the inventory of corrugated paper in the paper mills has decreased. In addition, the raw material waste paper still has a strong trend, which provides favorable support for market prices. But in the state of supply and demand game, the price of corrugated paper is temporarily stable. In late June, as terminal orders approached their end, most paper mills' inventory returned to medium to high levels, and spot supply was sufficient. Under the influence of off-season factors, downstream orders have been verified by the market, but the actual demand increase is lower than expected, resulting in a slower consumption rate of corrugated paper inventory in paper mills and an increase in supply pressure. The combined decrease in waste paper prices has provided weak support for corrugated paper prices.

On the demand side: In mid to early June, the demand for corrugated paper in the market slightly slowed down, and the bullish sentiment in the market slightly cooled down. Due to the rapid increase in the previous period, there was a brief correction. In addition, with the gradual stabilization of overseas export volume and the imminent end of e-commerce activities, the demand for corrugated paper market is gradually cooling down. The downstream terminal market mostly purchases on demand and generates a large number of orders, so prices tend to remain stable. In late June, the actual increase in market demand was lower than expected, coupled with off-season factors, resulting in a marginal weakening of the supply-demand relationship. Due to the temporary easing of tariff friction in the early stage, the expected increase in orders in the market is greater than the actual increase in orders, leading to further expansion of market supply and demand pressure. Subsequently, with the weakening of export orders, the actual consumption in the market will be difficult to increase significantly, and the price of corrugated paper will continue to decline and expand.

The paper analyst from SunSirs believes that the current corrugated paper market is experiencing a pattern of oversupply. In the short term, the market is in the off-season of traditional domestic consumption, and the purchasing willingness of industry players is gradually weakening due to their bearish expectations for the future market. It is expected that the price of corrugated paper will continue to decline weakly in the short term.

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