According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper in November can be described as a pleasant upward trend, and the price continues to maintain an upward trend. On November 28th, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 3,210 RMB/ton, an increase of 7.0% compared to the average price on November 1st.
In terms of upstream raw materials: In November, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang Province increased more than decreased, and domestic waste paper prices also showed an overall upward trend. On November 28th, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang Province was 2,004 RMB/ton, an increase of 6.94% compared to the average price on November 1st. The supply recovery of the waste paper market in November was relatively slow, and many places reflected that the amount of waste paper recycling was lower than the same period in previous years, which led to a shortage of waste paper supply and a clear reluctance to sell at packaging stations. During the traditional peak demand season in the early stage, paper mills were more active in production, resulting in a lower inventory of waste paper. Therefore, paper mills raised their recycling prices to attract the arrival of waste paper. Subsequently, as the inventory of waste paper in the paper mill gradually became saturated, the price of waste paper briefly fell, but soon the price rose again.
On the supply side: In November, the continuous rise in raw material and waste paper prices put pressure on the raw material costs of paper companies, which also led to the shutdown and maintenance of some machines in several leading paper mills. The raw paper inventory of paper companies was at a low level, and the short-term reduction in supply of corrugated paper continued, thereby easing the pressure on raw materials and indirectly supporting market prices. In addition, from the beginning to the end of November, leading paper companies continuously issued price increase letters, and other small and medium-sized paper mills followed suit, forming an industry wide price increase trend, which is favorable for the upward trend of corrugated paper prices.
In terms of demand: With the upcoming e-commerce festival and year-end promotion in November, market orders are gradually being released, and downstream packaging companies' demand for replenishment is increasing, forming a centralized procurement demand and continuously driving market prices. Affected by the mentality of "buying up instead of buying down", some companies have hoarded goods in advance, further driving up demand. The concentrated procurement and low inventory state in the market enhance the bargaining power of paper enterprises, supporting the continuous rise of corrugated paper prices.
The paper analyst of SunSirs believes that as the paper mill gradually resumes production after shutdown and maintenance, the inventory of the paper mill may gradually increase. If the inventory reaches a high level in the later stage, there is a possibility of selling goods at a discounted price. At present, the price of corrugated paper has risen to a high level, and some market participants hold a bearish attitude towards the future market. They still need to pay attention to the market supply and demand situation, and it is expected that the short-term price of corrugated paper will remain mainly driven up.
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