According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, although the price of corrugated paper has slightly increased this week, the upward trend is gradually slowing down. On December 4, 2025, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 3,230 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.62% compared to the average price on November 30.

In terms of upstream raw materials: This week, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang region remained stable with slight downward movements, while domestic waste paper prices remained mostly stable. On December 4, 2025, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow board paper in Zhejiang region was 2,002 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the average price on November 30. This week, the peak demand for finished paper in China has come to an end, and paper mills have weakened their demand for waste paper, which may offset the impact of a shortage of waste paper sources. The market may maintain a weak supply-demand situation. Due to the differentiation of purchasing demands among paper companies, some paper mills in certain regions have reduced their raw material purchases due to insufficient orders, resulting in downward pressure on prices.

Supply side: Currently, the inventory of large-scale paper mills is generally low, and some enterprises still have the intention to raise prices. But with the gradual resumption of production by paper mills that have been shut down for maintenance, some companies in the market have seen a slight increase in inventory, and supply pressure has become apparent. If the inventory of some small and medium-sized paper mills gradually accumulates and reaches a warning level, there may be a possibility of discounted shipments in the future. In December, large-scale paper companies continued to release price increase plans, which temporarily supported the current prices, resulting in a slight increase in corrugated paper prices.

In terms of demand: Recently, the rebound in export demand and the expansion of manufacturing have to some extent driven the demand for corrugated paper. However, downstream packaging factories have slowed down their procurement pace due to sufficient inventory in the early stage, and tend to focus on on-demand procurement, resulting in weak demand or limiting the upward trend of prices.

The paper analyst from SunSirs believes that there are signs of a gradual decline in the price of waste paper, but the magnitude of the decrease is relatively small, and costs are still under high pressure. Downstream packaging companies prioritize digesting existing inventory, with limited demand growth. The rise in paper prices may slow down, and it is expected that the short-term corrugated paper prices will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range.

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