According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper has returned to a downward trend after a stable increase in the early stage this week. On June 19, 2025, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,620 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.13% compared to the average price on June 15.

In terms of upstream raw materials, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang region showed a downward trend this week, and the prices of waste paper in domestic paper mills all showed a decline. On June 19, 2025, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow board paper in Zhejiang region was 1,514 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.2% compared to the average price on June 15. Due to the upward trend in waste paper prices in many regions last week, the amount of waste paper received by paper mills has increased. Therefore, after the inventory of waste paper in paper mills returned to a high level, the price of waste paper stabilized for a few days and then declined, thereby weakening the shipping enthusiasm of packaging stations.

On the supply side: Currently, production enterprises have stable equipment operation, and most paper mills have inventory at medium to high levels, with sufficient spot supply. Under the influence of off-season factors, downstream orders have been verified by the market, but the actual demand increase is lower than expected, resulting in a slower consumption rate of corrugated paper inventory in paper mills and an increase in supply pressure. The combined decrease in waste paper prices has provided weak support for corrugated paper prices.

In terms of demand: Currently, the actual increase in market demand is lower than expected, coupled with off-season factors, resulting in a marginal weakening of the supply-demand relationship. Due to the temporary easing of tariff friction in the early stage, the expected increase in orders in the market is greater than the actual increase in orders, leading to further expansion of market supply and demand pressure. However, with the weakening of export orders, the actual consumption in the market will be difficult to increase significantly, and the price of corrugated paper will fall again.

The paper analyst from SunSirs believes that the current corrugated paper market is experiencing a pattern of oversupply. In the short term, the market is in the off-season of traditional domestic consumption, and the purchasing willingness of industry players is gradually weakening due to their bearish expectations for the future market. It is expected that the price of corrugated paper will show a weak trend in the short term.

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