According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal was stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was about 900 RMB/ton.
The energy index on May 19 was 1,197 points, down 14 points from previous day, down 23.32% from the highest point in the cycle (1,561 points on 2021-10-21), and up 134.25% from the lowest point of 511 points on March 01, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to the present)
In terms of production areas, thermal coal is now operating in a stable manner. The coal supply in the market is limited, and the supply of long-term cooperation is mainly, and downstream procurement is acceptable. In terms of downstream power plants, the port market is now dominated by the long-term cooperation and guaranteed supply of coal. The daily consumption of the power plant is average, the downstream procurement is average recently, and the market transaction is deserted.
From the macro perspective, since 2022, China's coal production has maintained a rapid growth trend, and the coal supply guarantee capacity has continued to increase. In terms of production, the output of raw coal from January to April increased by 10.5% year-on-year, of which Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang accounted for 80.9% of the total. In terms of imports, coal imports from January to March fell by 24.2% year-on-year. In April, the decline turned to increase, with a year-on-year increase of 8.4%.
The analyst of SunSirs believes that the downstream non-electric terminal demand is mostly purchased on demand, but the overall situation is still more cautious and wait-and-see. The market's willingness to purchase coal is relatively low. Considering the comprehensive policy perspective, the thermal coal price in the later stage may still fluctuate, and the operation will mainly depend on the downstream market demand.
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