Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, as of January 6, the average ex-factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province in China referred to 9,533 RMB/ton. Compared with the price on January 3 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 8,300 RMB/ton), the average price was raised by 1,233 RMB/ton, an increase of 18.88%.

Analysis review

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of SunSirs that after the New Year’s Day, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong ushered in a sharp rise, the spot inventory in the market was low, the supply was tight, the downstream demand was performing well, and the trading atmosphere was positive. On the 4th, the focus of n-butanol market transactions rose steadily. The ex-factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 8,500 RMB/ton, and the daily average price was raised by 200 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.41%.On the 5th, the growth rate of the n-butanol market increased. Affected by the shutdown of equipment in some areas, the on-site supply continued to tighten. The quotations of mainstream n-butanol factories in Shandong increased sharply. The high price had risen to around 10,000 RMB/ton, and the largest increase in two days was 1700 RMB/ton. On the 6th, the n-butanol market continued to gather upwards, and the low-end prices on the market decreased. The ex-factory price of n-butanol in Shandong referred to around 9,600-10,000 RMB/ton, and the average price referred to 9,866 RMB/ton. Compared with before the holiday, the three-day increase has reached 18.88%.

In terms of index, the n-butanol (industrial grade) commodity index on January 5 was 64.40, which was the same as previous day, and was down 51.13% from the highest point of 131.79 points in the cycle (2021-05-16), and an increase of 115.46% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)

In terms of upstream propylene, starting from the 4th after the holiday, the price of propylene in the Shandong region had steadily increased. As of the 6th, the cumulative increase after the holiday was 4%. Oil prices rose strongly, and the cost side boosted, the price of propylene was adjusted upward. Downstream demand was general, and the rise of propylene was hindered in the off-season. On January 5, the Propylene Commodity Index was 63.27, an increase of 1.06 points from previous day, a decrease of 37.26% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.85 points (2011-09-07), and an increase of 93.31% from the lowest point of 32.73 points on September 29, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)

Market outlook

At present, the supply side of the n-butanol market in the short term will continue to be tight, the supply side is supporting the market, and the downstream demand is stable. The n-butanol data analyst of SunSirs believes that the n-butanol market in Shandong will continue to run at a high level in the near future, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes in supply and demand.

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