Price trend
According to the data from SunSirs’ bulk list, as of November 29, the average price of melamine companies was 17,200 RMB/ton, which was 14.14% lower than the price on November 1, and rose 21.41% in a three-month cycle. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 132.43%.
Analysis review
The market price of melamine fell in November. In the first half of the month, the upstream urea price fell at the beginning of the month, cost support gradually loosened, and the operating load rate of enterprises remained at a high level. Exports had slowed down, but there was still some support, mainly waiting and watching. However, the domestic trade demand was not good, the inventory of some enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation had weakened. In the second half of the month, the overall cost support was still insufficient, and the market operating rate declined slightly, but the demand side performance was still weak and there was no significant improvement. Domestic trade demand was flat, export market performance was average, the market maintained a light pattern, and prices were gradually falling under pressure. Near the end of the month, the market was weak and stable, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong.
Upstream urea, according to the data monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic urea market rose on November 29, and the reference price of urea was 2,480.00 on November 29, which was a 0.20% increase compared with the previous trading day and a decrease of 11.17% compared with November 1. Upstream coal prices were stable, LNG prices rose slightly recently, and cost support increased.
From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand rose slightly, and industrial demand was mainly wait-and-see. The advancement of fertilizer storage in winter was slow, downstream compound fertilizer plants have began to purchase large orders of urea, melamine companies’ inventories were under pressure, and the focus of market negotiations had weakened. From the perspective of supply, the inventory of urea manufacturers was relatively high, and the daily output of urea was about 150,000 tons. At the end of the month, the gas head unit will be shut down one after another, and the urea output will decrease. On the whole, urea cost support was average, downstream demand was dominated by rigid demand, market trading atmosphere was general, and urea supply was decreasing. In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea price may fluctuate up slightly mainly in the near future.
Market outlook
SunSirs’ melamine analysts believe that the current upstream urea price has risen slightly, and there is not much support from the cost side. Some companies’ inventory are under pressure, the downstream demand performance is still insufficient. The supply and demand side affects the market. It is expected that the domestic melamine market may be weak and stable in the short term.
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