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SunSirs: Silver and Ggold Plunged in the Night Trading Last Friday, and the Market Outlook may Stop Falling or Move up from November
January 11 2021 10:36:18SunSirs(Linda)

Friday night silver and gold both plummeted

1. Domestic spot silver plummeted by 8.96% and gold plummeted by 3.67%

According to SunSirs tracking data, on January 8, 2021, domestic precious metal spot gold and silver fell sharply in the night trading. As of 02:30 on the 9th, the latest price of Au (T+D) was 381.01 yuan/gram, a decrease of 3.67%, and Ag (T +D) The latest price is 5,098 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8.96%.

2. The main domestic futures contract Ag2102 plummeted 9.12% Au2102 plummeted 3.87%

Futures and futures linkage, domestic precious metal futures gold and silver fell sharply in the night trading. As of 02:30 on the 9th, the latest price of the main contract Au2012 fell 15.38 yuan/g to 381.01 yuan/g, a drop of 3.87%, and the latest price of the main contract Au2016 fell 15.56 yuan. /G to 383.84 yuan/g, a decrease of 3.90%; the latest price of the main contract Ag2102 fell 514 yuan/kg to 5125 yuan/kg, a decrease of 9.12%; the latest price of the main contract Ag2106 fell 531 yuan/kg to 5175 yuan/kg, The decrease was 9.31%.

3. CME precious metal prices stopped falling and rebounded slightly during non-Chinese trading hours

During non-Chinese trading hours, at around 16:00 Beijing time on the 8th, the external precious metal prices plummeted, plunged sharply, and the domestic night market opened lower to follow; after the domestic night market ended, the external precious metal prices stopped falling and rebounded slightly.

News factor

1. US non-agricultural data is poor as expected

At 21:30 on January 8th, Beijing time, the U.S. Department of Labor updated its non-agricultural employment data for December 2020, showing that non-agricultural employment in December 2020 will decrease by 140,000, which is expected to increase by 50,000, and the previous value will increase by 245,000. The unemployment rate of 6.7% was unchanged from the previous value.

Following the 22 million job loss in the job market after March/April 2020, another 140,000 jobs were lost in December, and a total of 12 million jobs were restored during the year. The data in June was the most optimistic. The details are as follows

The ADP data of the ‘small non-agricultural’ in December showed that the number of employed persons fell by 123,000 in December, which was far below the expected increase of 75,000 and an increase of 307,000 from the previous value. Although the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI recorded 57.2 in December, the highest since September last year, the ISM employment index reversed the upward momentum of the previous three months and fell to 48.2. The ISM report stated that the number of employment in the manufacturing sector increased during the month, but employment in the service sector declined.

2. Trump's Twitter account is permanently suspended, Biden's trillion-dollar stimulus plan is expected to strengthen

Trump's Twitter account was permanently suspended. Before Biden stated that he would talk to House Speaker Pelosi and Democratic leaders on January 9, Beijing time, and would propose a comprehensive stimulus package, and the number would be very 'large'. It is expected that the details of the stimulus plan will be announced next Thursday, and the scale of the stimulus plan will be trillions of dollars. Biden said that financial means will be used to combat the epidemic, teachers will be vaccinated against the new crown, and the requirement to wear masks will be adhered to in all federal jurisdictions.

3. In November, global central bank net sales of gold have recently seen a momentum of net sales of gold

According to the latest data released in January 2021, the overall net purchases of gold by global central banks in January-November 2020, the recent trend of net sales of gold, of which net sales of gold appeared for the first time in August and September, returned in October, and appeared again in November Net sales of gold, the monthly increase and decrease of global central bank gold reserves are as follows:

The central banks selling gold in November were Turkey (20.9 tons) and Mongolia (2.4 tons); the central banks buying gold included Uzbekistan (8.4 tons), Qatar (3.1 tons), India (2.8 tons), Kazakhstan (1.7 tons), and Ukraine ( 0.6 tons). As of November 2020, the world's official gold reserves totaled 35,191.1 tons. The top 15 official gold reserves in the world are as follows:

Outlook forecast

The price of precious metal gold and silver continued to rise in December. According to data from the business agency, the monthly increase of domestic spot gold was 6.57%, and the monthly increase of spot silver was 19.44%. In the recent 3 trading days, the price of precious metals began to fluctuate sideways. Business agency analyst Ye Jianjun believes that before the plunge, the price touched the previous high and fluctuating range, and the upside resistance increased. On the other hand, profitability surged. Under the sideways situation, profit-making funds were out of the market and the demand for waiting-and-seeing increased. Squeeze profit. At present, the increase in December has gone by half, and the price may gradually stop falling and stabilize. It is expected that the near-term stop will be higher than the end of November. In the near future, it is mainly cautious to wait and see.

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