Latest Intelligence on Bulk Raw Materials

Macro

1. [Industrial Value Added] National Bureau of Statistics: In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year. It increased by 0.61% from the previous month. From January to May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year.

2. [Power Generation] National Bureau of Statistics: In May, the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 737.8 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.4 percentage points from April; the average daily power generation was 23.8 billion kWh. From January to May, the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3726.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. Excluding the number of days, the average daily power generation increased by 1.0% year-on-year.

3. [M2] Central Bank: At the end of May, the balance of broad money (M2) was 325.78 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 108.91 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. Net cash injection in the first five months was 306.4 billion RMB.

4. [RMB loans] Central Bank: At the end of May, the balance of RMB loans was 266.32 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion RMB in the first five months.

5. [Social financing data] Central Bank: According to preliminary statistics, the stock of social financing scale was 426.16 trillion RMB at the end of May, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%.

The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first five months of 2025 was 18.63 trillion RMB, 3.83 trillion RMB more than the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 10.38 trillion RMB, an increase of 112.3 billion RMB year-on-year; foreign currency loans issued to the real economy decreased by 96.3 billion RMB in RMB, a decrease of 169 billion RMB year-on-year; entrusted loans decreased by 11.3 billion RMB, a decrease of 80.2 billion RMB year-on-year; trust loans increased by 62.7 billion RMB, a decrease of 172.3 billion RMB year-on-year; undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 134.3 billion RMB, an increase of 166.2 billion RMB year-on-year; corporate bond net financing was 908.7 billion RMB, a decrease of 288.4 billion RMB year-on-year; government bond net financing was 6.31 trillion RMB, an increase of 3.81 trillion RMB year-on-year; non-financial enterprises domestic stock financing was 150.4 billion RMB, an increase of 44.4 billion RMB year-on-year.

6. [US Consumer Confidence Index] The University of Michigan Consumer Survey announced that the US Consumer Confidence Index in June jumped from the final value of 52.2 in May to 60.5.

Energy

1. [Crude Oil] On June 13, international crude oil futures jumped sharply. The settlement price of the July contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $72.98 per barrel, an increase of $4.94 or 7.3%. The settlement price of the August contract of Brent crude oil futures was $74.23 per barrel, an increase of $4.87 or 7.0%. The main reason is that the conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated, regional tensions have heated up, and concerns about crude oil supply disruptions have intensified.

2. [Crude oil] The total number of oil drilling rigs in the United States as of the week of June 13 was 439.

3. [Crude oil] JPMorgan Chase maintains its basic expectation that oil prices will be in the range of $60 to $65 for the rest of 2025, and oil prices are expected to be $60 in 2026.

4. [Crude oil] Kuwait set the price of crude oil sold to the United States in July at a premium of US$3.5 per barrel (compared with the average price of Oman/Dubai), the price of crude oil sold to Asia at a premium of US$0.4 per barrel, the price of crude oil sold to Northwestern Europe at a discount of US$0.25 per barrel, and the price of crude oil sold to the Mediterranean region at a discount of US$0.25 per barrel.

5. [Fuel oil] According to data from the Singapore Economic Development Board (ESG), Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose by 1.133 million barrels to a 7-week high of 23.714 million barrels in the week ending June 11; Singapore's light distillate oil inventory rose by 232,000 barrels to a 3-week high of 13.334 million barrels; Singapore's middle distillate oil inventory rose by 1.475 million barrels to a 13-week high of 10.715 million barrels.

Chemicals

1. [Hydrogen peroxide] It is understood that in mid-June, the core equipment of the 200,000 tons/year hydrogen peroxide unit project of the fine chemicals and raw materials engineering of Northern Huajin United Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation.

2. [Ethanol] On June 13, the 150,000 tons/year cassava general-grade ethanol unit of Jiangsu Dongcheng Biotechnology was shut down.

3. [Caustic soda] (20250606-0612) The average capacity utilization rate of China's 200,000 tons and above caustic soda sample enterprises was 80.9%, a decrease of 2.5% from the previous week.

4. [Bromine] (20250606-0612) The capacity utilization rate of China's bromine units was 68.61%, the same as the previous week.

5. [lDiethylene glyco] On June 12, the total shipment of the two warehouses in Zhangjiagang was 1,495 tons, a decrease of 118 tons from the previous day. As of now, the inventory of the two warehouses is 35,900 tons.

6. [MDI] The guidance price of pure MDI in a Shanghai factory in June is 18,800 RMB/ton (barrel).

7. [Fluorite] On June 16, the ex-factory price of fluorite of Pucheng County Qiangmei Mining Co., Ltd. fell by 50 RMB/ton, and the manufacturer's quotation was 3,300 RMB/ton. The current inventory is low.

8. [Butadiene] The bidding situation of some domestic butadiene companies on June 16: Fushun Petrochemical exported 150 tons, with a base price of 8,750 RMB/ton; Dongming Petrochemical exported 336 tons, with a base price of 9,300 RMB/ton.

9. [Chloroform] On June 16, the ex-factory price of chloroform bulk water of Luxi Chemical was 1,550 RMB/ton, a decrease of 50 RMB/ton, subject to actual negotiation.

10. [Melamine] On June 16, the ex-factory price of JiuRMB melamine in Xinji, Hebei was 5,400 RMB/ton, down 100 RMB/ton from the previous working day. The deal is negotiable. Phase I is shut down, Phase II is faulty, and Phase III is normal.

Rubber and Plastic

1. [ABS] Liaoning Jinfa ABS unit has a total capacity of 600,000 tons/year. The entire line was shut down for maintenance a few days ago and is expected to resume at the end of June.

2. [PP] Yanshan Petrochemical's three PP production units have a total capacity of 440,000 tons/year. Previously, the second line (70,000 tons/year) and the third line (250,000 tons/year) were shut down in May, and the first line (120,000 tons/year) was shut down in early June. The resumption time is undetermined.

Textile

1. [Textile] As of June 13, the operating load of textile enterprises in mainstream regions was 72.2%, a month-on-month decrease of 2.43%.

2. [PTA] Ningbo Formosa Petrochemical's 1.2 million tons PTA unit restarted on April 26 and shut down on June 10; another 1.5 million tons PTA unit began to shut down on May 6 and restarted on May 29.

Jiaxing Petrochemical's total PTA capacity is 3.7 million tons/year, of which the 1# 1.5 million tons unit was shut down on June 8, and the restart time is to be determined.

3. [Acrylonitrile] On June 16, it was reported that a 200,000 tons acrylonitrile production line of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical has been put into production and is currently being debugged.

South Korea's Taekwang's 290,000 tons/year acrylonitrile unit in Ulsan plans to shut down for maintenance for about 3-4 weeks in July.

4. [Lint Cotton] According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, cotton imports were lower than expected due to the abuse of tariffs by the United States. This month, the import volume for 2024/25 will be adjusted to 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month, and the end-of-period inventory will be reduced to 8.01 million tons.      

5. [Lint Cotton] According to statistics, as of June 12, the inventory of imported cotton in major ports fell by 3.19% week-on-week, with a total inventory of 443,100 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week.

6. [Lint Cotton] The U.S. Department of Agriculture released a supply and demand report, and the global cotton production, consumption, beginning and ending inventory, and global trade volume in 2025/26 were all reduced. This month, global cotton production was reduced by more than 800,000 bales, consumption was reduced by more than 300,000 bales, and beginning inventory was reduced by more than 1.1 million bales.

7. [Lint Cotton] The 2025/26 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecast shows that the average yield of cotton in the United States has been reduced by more than 1 percentage point to 820 pounds per acre, and the U.S. cotton production is expected to be 14 million bales, a reduction of 500,000 bales from the previous month, the second lowest in the past decade. The beginning inventory of U.S. cotton was reduced by 400,000 bales due to the upward revision of the export forecast for 2024/25.

8. [Lint Cotton] The Cotton Association of India (CAI) announced that on June 12, 2025, the estimated arrival volume of cotton in India is 17,500 bales (170 kg per bale), or 2,975 tons. So far in the 2024/25 fiscal year (October to September of the following year), the cumulative arrival volume of cotton in India is 27,786,400 bales, or 4,723,688 tons.

Steel

1. [Galvanized Steel Sheet] Recently, the Internal Market Protection Department of the Eurasian Economic Commission issued an announcement. According to Resolution No. 50 of the Eurasian Economic Commission, it was decided to extend the validity of the anti-dumping measures determined by Resolution No. 209 of December 3, 2019 for another five years, and continue to implement anti-dumping measures on galvanized steel sheets originating in China and Ukraine. Among them, the tariff rate of the products involved in China is 12.69% to 17.00%, and that of Ukraine is 23.90%. The measures are valid until June 9, 2030 (inclusive).

2. [Stainless steel pipe] According to media reports, the total investment of the Qingshan Industrial Park Dejing high-quality stainless steel pipe production project is 1 billion RMB, and it is planned to install 35 automated pipe production lines. Two of them have been debugged and are in trial production, and another 15 are being installed and debugged. It is expected that 13 production lines will be put into production by the end of June, and all production lines are expected to be installed within the year. After full production, it will form an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of high-quality stainless steel pipes.

3. [Steel] Last week, the average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills in the country was 56.73%, a decrease of 1.97 percentage points from the previous month.

4. [Steel billet] Last week, the national social inventory of steel billets was 742,900 tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons from the previous month, a new low for the year, and a decrease of 652,500 tons from the high point of the year (the high point appeared on February 13).

5. [Galvanized sheet] On June 13, the inventory of coated sheet and coil warehouses in major domestic markets was monitored: galvanized 1.0726 million tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons from the previous week; color coated 262,800 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous week. The total inventory of coated and plated was 1.3354 million tons, a decrease of 27,900 tons from the previous week.

6. [Steel] According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early June 2025, key steel enterprises produced a total of 21.59 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.159 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.2%; pig iron 19.63 million tons, an average daily output of 1.963 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.6%; steel 20.37 million tons, an average daily output of 2.037 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.4%.

7. [Manganese silicon] The first round of inquiry for silicon manganese of Hesteel Group in June was 5,500 RMB/ton, and the price of silicon manganese in May was 5,850 RMB/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 350 RMB/ton. (The price in June 2024 is 8,420 RMB/ton).

8. [Manganese silicon] Hebei Xinjin Rolling Materials June Tender: 33 tons of silicon manganese alloy, registration deadline: 2025-06-16 19:00, quotation deadline: 2025-06-17 09:30, required delivery date: 2025-06-27.

Nonferrous

1. [Alumina] It is understood that on June 13, the spot transaction of alumina in Guangxi was 3,000 tons, and the transaction price was 3,200 RMB/ton (ex-factory price). Traders left the electrolytic aluminum plant and flowed to the province.

2. [Aluminum] China's bauxite production in May was 5.3664 million tons, up 5.31% from the previous month and 8.97% from the previous year.

3. [Gold] Bank of America expects gold to rise to $4,000 per ounce in the next 12 months.

4. [Gold] Goldman Sachs said it maintains its previous forecast that the structurally strong gold purchases by central banks will push gold prices to $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026.

5. [Nickel] According to foreign media reports, the joint committee of the two houses of the Philippines decided to remove the ban on the export of raw ore from the final version of the Mining Fiscal System Act, and the Philippine Nickel Association welcomed this. Previously, the Philippine government announced that it would ban the export of nickel ore from June 2025. The market expected that this move would have a significant impact on Indonesia's nickel processing industry.

6. [Nickel] The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association APNI announced that the reference price of the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in June (Phase I) was US$15,405/ton, which was about 0.06% lower than the reference price of US$15,415/ton in May (Phase II).

Building materials

1. [Asphalt] On June 16, the starting price of Dongming 70#A asphalt was raised to 3,660 RMB, and the auction was held at 10:30 am. A set of 3 million tons/year atmospheric and vacuum units was shut down for maintenance, with a daily output of about 3,000-4,000 tons, and is currently shipping normally.

2. [Asphalt] On June 16, Shandong Oriental Hualong Group, "Hualong Yitong" brand road petroleum asphalt increased by 20 RMB compared with the previous day's price: retail products were raised by 20, and all were shipped in controlled quantities. Matrix asphalt: 70#A: 3,730 RMB/ton, 90#A: 3,830 RMB/ton.

Agricultural and sideline products

1. [Wheat] State Reserves Bureau: As of June 14, the country has purchased more than 17 million tons of summer wheat, which is faster than the same period last year. The purchase volume of new summer grain will reach more than 85 million tons, maintaining a high level in recent years.

2. [Corn] The weekly export sales report of the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that as of June 5, 2025, the export volume of corn from the United States to China (mainland) in 2024/25 was 33,000 tons, compared with 2.73 million tons in the same period last year.

3. [Soybean meal] As of the week of June 5, 2025, the net sales volume of soybean meal in the United States in 2024/25 was 214,500 tons, a decrease of 16% from the previous week and a decrease of 35% from the four-week average.

4. [Soybean meal] The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) said that Brazil will export 2.07 million tons of soybean meal in June 2025, higher than the estimated 1.291 million tons a week ago, and close to the 2.05 million tons in June last year.

5. [Corn] The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) released its 9th forecast report, showing that Brazil's corn exports in 2024/25 are estimated to be 34 million tons, the same as last month's forecast, lower than last year's 38.5 million tons, and will be the lowest export volume since 20.82 million tons in 2020/21, indicating intensified international competition.

6. [Soybean] The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) released a monthly report, Brazil's soybean production in 2024/25 will reach 1696058 million tons, 1.26 million tons higher than the expected value of 1683418 million tons last month, an increase of 14.8% over the previous year's 1477213 million tons, and an increase of 14% last month. Last month, CONAB raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean production by 470,000 tons.

7. [Rapeseed] According to the Canadian Grain Commission, Canada's canola exports fell 9.54% to 158,400 tons in the week ending June 8, compared with 175,100 tons in the previous week. As of June 8, Canada's commercial canola inventory was 1.055 million tons.

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