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Zhaojin Futures: South America's Precipitation Alleviates Drought, Soybean Meal Market is under Pressure to Fall
December 04 2020 08:24:02SunSirs(Linda)

Futures: Soybean meal 2105 continued to fall on Wednesday, closing at 3117 (down 48), with a total of 517 Masukura hands, and trading volume remained stable. The top 20 capital flows: long positions increase and decrease positions, individual concentrated positions increase and decrease positions, holdings slightly increase, and the concentration of chips increases; short positions are dispersed and lightened, holdings decrease, and concentration decreases. Some parts of South America ushered in precipitation, which eased the drought to a certain extent, and the high level of U.S. soybeans fell; the domestic soybean meal fell sharply in recent months, which led to the weakening of the long-term. Pay attention to the changes in funds around 3100 and the impact of changes in market sentiment.

Strategic analysis: The precipitation in South America alleviates the drought, and the forecast precipitation will continue. Supply and demand, weather and market sentiment factors alternately affect the market. On the supply side, China continues to actively purchase U.S. soybeans, with high arrivals, and port soybean stocks may continue to grow; there is uncertainty in South American soybean production. In terms of demand, soybean meal stocks have fallen and pig prices have fallen, but the current breeding profits are still active. In the fourth quarter of the breeding consumption season, the large cycle of pig breeding has been restored, and the medium and long-term stimulation of soybean meal demand will increase. Operational reference: The medium-term bullish trend remains unchanged, and the important support area for market callbacks can be placed in the medium and long-term long-term multiple orders. After a sharp increase, the position can be reduced or short-term hedge.

Market strategy: Soybean meal 2105 may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to the enthusiasm of long and short funds, the impact of news and changes in market expectations. Short-term operation: wait and see, if the market goes down and stabilizes in the 3070-3100 area, you can consider trying more, and if the market rises above and near 3250, you can consider reducing more and more. Swing operation: low midline holding 15% more fund positions or falling back to around 3070 and placing midline long orders. Key short-term positions: 3110, 3150.

Market news: Ministry of Agriculture: In October, there were 39.5 million reproductive sows, an increase for 13 consecutive months, an increase of 32% over the same period last year; 387 million live pigs, an increase for 9 consecutive months, an increase of 27% over the same period last year; currently The pig production capacity has been restored to about 88% at the end of 2017. Following this trend, in the second quarter of next year, the national pig stock will basically return to the level of normal years. The USDA supply and demand report lowered the U.S. soybean yield from the October estimate of 51.9 bushels/acre to 50.7 bushels/acre, and the output from 4.268 billion bushels to 41.7 bushels. Development and Reform Commission: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a central budget to invest 4.55 billion yuan to strengthen support for the environmental management of livestock and poultry farms and other infrastructure construction, support the accelerated recovery of live pig production, and promote sustainable agricultural development. U.S. soybean exports to China continue to grow, and the total sales and unshipped volumes are at the highest levels in the same period in history. The profit of imported soybean crushing fell month-on-month, but there was still profit. China has stepped up its purchase of US soybeans. The forecast volume of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter has been revised up from the previous month.

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