WTO Director-General Ivira recently issued a global appeal, stating that the war in the Middle East poses a serious threat to global food security and calling for the maintenance of unimpeded global supply chains. Given that modern food systems are deeply embedded within energy, chemical, maritime, and financial systems, although the current Middle East conflict has not directly destroyed the world’s major breadbaskets, it has struck at the most vulnerable links in global agricultural production—oil and gas prices, fertilizer supplies, and key maritime routes—thereby exacerbating the systemic food crisis.

First, the conflict has forced large numbers of innocent civilians to become refugees. Since the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, there have been significant civilian casualties and a surge in the refugee crisis. According to data released by the United Nations on March 19, this war has claimed the lives of over 1,400 Iranian civilians, nearly 900 in Lebanon, and dozens in Israel. Meanwhile, the refugee crisis is becoming increasingly severe. According to the World Health Organization, as many as 3.2 million Iranians have been displaced, over 1 million people in Lebanon have been displaced, and tens of thousands of Israelis living in the border regions of northern Israel adjacent to Lebanon have also left their homes. Displaced Lebanese are living in overcrowded shelters, and recently more than 100,000 people have arrived in Syria from Lebanon, marking a striking reverse migration trend following Syria’s years-long civil war. Meanwhile, large numbers of Israelis spend hours each day taking shelter in parking lots, safe houses, and underground bunkers to evade the more than 1,000 missiles fired by Iran and the rockets launched by Hezbollah since the war began. According to UN statistics as of March 17, “Currently, 132,700 people in Lebanon are living in approximately 622 shelters, and the total number of people forced to flee their homes may exceed 1 million.” The overcrowding resulting from this displacement could rapidly increase health risks and even directly escalate into a humanitarian tragedy.

Second, the international humanitarian aid system is under simultaneous strain. The United Nations has warned that if the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran has not eased by mid-year, up to 45 million people could face severe hunger, bringing the total number of people suffering from hunger to a historic high, while international humanitarian aid capacity has also suffered a systemic shock. First, the cost of relief supplies has risen. Due to the conflict, the cost of transporting humanitarian supplies has already increased by about 18%. This means that at a time when aid is most needed, the international community’s ability to “buy, transport, and deliver food” will actually decline. The head of the World Food Programme stated that rising costs “mean we can buy less food or provide less cash to beneficiaries.” The agency has been forced to cut food rations for people in famine-stricken areas of Sudan and can currently assist only a quarter of severely malnourished children in Afghanistan—a country that is currently facing the world’s most severe malnutrition crisis. Second, there has been a structural reduction in the supply of relief goods. Escalating geopolitical tensions inevitably lead some countries to divert more financial resources toward security and military spending rather than international aid and development cooperation. The result is that while old hunger crises remain unresolved, the number of people facing hunger is increasing, and some nations are forced to struggle for survival amid high food prices, high energy costs, and heavy debt burdens. Third, safety risks for relief workers are rising. The war in the Middle East has caused the most severe disruption to life-saving humanitarian work since the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to blocked transport and logistics and heavy casualties among aid workers; at least 16 medical personnel have lost their lives in recent days. In response, the UN Secretary-General has once again called for an end to this escalating conflict.

Third, the least developed countries face even greater risks. Although the war is taking place in the Middle East, in today’s globalized world, the most vulnerable nations will still be severely affected. According to an analysis by the World Food Programme, countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are the most vulnerable due to their reliance on food and fuel imports.

Projections indicate that the number of people facing food insecurity in West and Central Africa will increase by 21%, in East and Southern Africa by 17%, and in Asia by 24%. Countries such as Somalia, Kenya, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, which rely on energy and fertilizer supplies from the Gulf region, are facing heightened food security risks. For these nations, the issue has never been a lack of grain on the international market, but rather the fragility of their local currencies, strained fiscal conditions, and limited foreign exchange reserves. Should import bills surge sharply, they will simply be unable to afford staple foods, and economic hardship will rapidly escalate into social risks. History has repeatedly demonstrated that while The fires of war may not fall on farmland, it can very well land on the dinner plates of the most vulnerable populations in other countries. Rising food prices are never merely a livelihood issue; they often compound with unemployment, debt, and political discontent, forming a broader chain of instability. Furthermore, this crisis directly exposes the shortcomings of the current global governance system regarding food security.

In the past, the international community often viewed food security as a matter of production, aid, or development, without truly re-examining it within the framework of global supply chains and geopolitical security. As a result, whenever conflict erupts in key hubs like the Middle East, the entire food supply chain immediately comes under pressure: oil prices rise, fertilizer costs increase; shipping routes are disrupted, freight rates soar; insurance becomes more expensive, and financial costs follow suit; ultimately, it is always the least developed countries—those with the least capacity to absorb shocks—that are the first to collapse.

If the 2022 Ukraine crisis primarily exposed the world to the risk of blocked Black Sea grain export routes—with concerns centered on “food not getting out”—this time, the greater risk is that “food may not be able to be grown in the future, or the cost of growing it will become increasingly high.” Therefore, the most urgent task for the international community is to de-escalate the conflict and bring the fighting to an immediate halt. Otherwise, the gunfire in the Middle East will ultimately spread to more corners of the globe in the form of higher food prices, widespread hunger, and deeper instability, culminating in a global humanitarian tragedy.

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