In March, the domestic melamine market experienced a sharp, one-sided upward trend. Prices soared from an average of around RMB5,000 per ton at the beginning of the month to over RMB 8,000 by month-end, marking a monthly increase of over 50% and setting a new annual high. On April 1, SunSirs’ melamine benchmark price stood at 9,425.00 RMB/ton, representing a 57.87% increase compared to early March (5,970.00 RMB/ton).

In the first half of the month, the domestic melamine market trended steadily upward. Urea, a key raw material, remained at high levels supported by fertilizer demand for spring plowing. Industry operating rates stabilized at around 60%, while maintenance at some plants in Central China and Northwest China led to tight spot supply. Downstream industries such as panel manufacturing and coatings gradually resumed operations, steadily releasing essential demand. Manufacturers took advantage of the situation to raise prices slightly and held back on sales, resulting in price increases of RMB 100–200 per ton during this period.

In the first half of the month, the domestic melamine market trended steadily upward. Urea, a key raw material, remained at high levels supported by demand for spring farming fertilizers. Industry operating rates stabilized at around 60%. Maintenance at some plants in Central China and Northwest China led to tight spot supply, Downstream industries such as panel manufacturing and coatings gradually resumed operations, steadily releasing essential demand. Manufacturers took the opportunity to raise prices slightly and held back inventory, resulting in price increases of RMB 100–200 per ton during this period.

In the latter half of the month, the domestic melamine market experienced an accelerated surge. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East triggered panic over international urea supply, providing strong support for domestic urea prices. Some idled plants gradually resumed production, pushing the industry’s operating rate back up to around 70%. However, certain manufacturers adopted a limited-order acceptance policy, and with a sufficient backlog of pending orders, the tight supply of spot goods remained unresolved. Compounded by downstream restocking sentiment—where buyers preferred to purchase during price increases rather than declines—and follow-up export orders, the average price (excluding Xinjiang) surged rapidly to over 8,000 per ton by month-end, with prices in some regions rising by RMB950–1,000 per ton in a single day. Raw material urea prices fluctuated at high levels. Although they fell slightly after mid-month due to the end of spring plowing and the release of reserves, the sharp rise in international urea prices provided price support. Coupled with high coal costs, this continued to underpin melamine production costs. From a supply and demand perspective, the market’s average operating rate remained at 65%–70%, with manufacturers increasingly reluctant to sell and determined to maintain prices, while inventories remained low. On the demand side, as downstream industries fully resumed operations, pent-up demand was released, domestic and international orders grew simultaneously, and procurement enthusiasm soared, further driving prices upward.

Overall, melamine prices in March stabilized before rising, with regional price differentials between northern and southern regions widening. Shandong and Henan led the market, while prices in Sichuan and Shanxi remained relatively low. Melamine prices are expected to continue their upward trend in the short term, with low-end prices rising by 300–400 RMB/ton over the weekend. Moving forward, continued attention should be paid to raw material price trends and downstream demand conditions.

It is projected that in April, the domestic melamine market will shift from the previous sharp surge to high-level volatility, eventually stabilizing with a slightly bearish trend. On the cost side, as the spring fertilization season draws to a close, demand support for urea will weaken, causing prices to retreat from their highs, which will significantly reduce the cost-driven pressure on melamine. On the supply side, facilities that were previously undergoing maintenance are gradually resuming production, and industry operating rates are gradually recovering. The tight supply situation in the market has eased somewhat, and manufacturers’ reluctance to sell and their efforts to prop up prices have weakened. On the demand side, downstream industries such as panel manufacturing and coatings have limited acceptance of current high prices. Purchases are primarily driven by immediate needs, and the willingness to chase higher prices has cooled, which may lead to a gradual slowdown in market transactions.

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