The Strait of Hormuz handles one-fifth of the world’s total oil shipments and about one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade; it is both an “oil artery” and a “food artery.” Industry experts note that just as the Northern Hemisphere is entering the spring planting season, fertilizer and oil shipments from the Gulf region are being held up due to shipping lane “blockages” caused by the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, raising risks of fertilizer shortages, increased freight costs, and rising food prices.

Natural gas is a key raw material for nitrogen fertilizer production. The Middle East is not only a major exporter of liquefied natural gas but also a primary source of common nitrogen fertilizers such as urea. Currently, due to shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, major agricultural nations like Brazil and Sudan are struggling to procure nitrogen fertilizers from the Middle East, while nitrogen fertilizer-producing countries such as India and Pakistan are facing difficulties in securing raw materials.

Brazil is a major global producer and exporter of agricultural products, and its agricultural sector relies heavily on imports of nitrogen fertilizers from the Middle East, Russia, and North Africa. Bernardo Silva, executive director of the Brazilian Fertilizer Raw Materials Industry Association, stated that the current conflict in the Middle East has exposed “the vulnerability of Brazil’s fertilizer market.”

According to data from market research firm Kepler, several cargo ships have recently been stranded in the Gulf region, carrying a total of nearly 1 million tons of fertilizer. Ideally, even if these shipments were to depart immediately, it would take several weeks for them to reach ports in various countries and be transported via river barges, trucks, or trains to ultimately reach farm fields. Most fertilizers must be applied before crops begin to grow; any delay would mean they would not arrive in time for this year’s spring planting season.

The seasonal and global nature of the fertilizer market has amplified the supply risks triggered by the situation in the Middle East. On the one hand, unlike the oil market, fertilizer purchases and shipments are typically timed to agricultural planting seasons, and most countries lack strategic reserves. On the other hand, the global fertilizer market is highly interconnected; a supply disruption in one region can affect fertilizer prices in others.

The website of Germany’s *Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung* recently reported that fertilizer prices have risen rapidly since shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. Urea prices rose by about 30% in a single week, reaching their highest level since 2022.

“It is clear that no ships [carrying fertilizer] are currently departing [from the Gulf region], and a massive gap will emerge in the fertilizer market,” said Ginny Breach, a data scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder.

The global fertilizer supply shock could ultimately lead to food shortages and price hikes. Joseph Glauber, a senior researcher at the International Food Policy Research Institute in the U.S., noted that higher fertilizer prices will influence crop selection. “Farmers may opt for crops that require less fertilization rather than those that need nitrogen-intensive fertilizers to avoid higher input costs. “Farmers in some poorer countries may simply reduce their use of fertilizers, which could lead to lower crop yields.”

According to U.S. media reports, soybeans require less fertilizer than corn. Given the current fertilizer price hikes and supply uncertainties, some U.S. farmers are planning to expand their soybean acreage.

Due to ongoing disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, international crude oil futures prices once again surpassed the $100-per-barrel mark as trading began for the new week on the evening of the 15th. Oil prices are closely linked to food prices. From the fertilizers used in the fields to the vehicles transporting agricultural products to supermarkets, energy costs affect multiple stages of the food supply chain.

Generally speaking, some foods do not store well, especially fresh produce such as fruits, vegetables, meat, and dairy products, which are prone to spoilage. This makes it difficult for businesses to stockpile large quantities, and the prices of these fresh foods are highly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices.

An analysis by Al Jazeera noted that refrigeration and preservation equipment may be powered by natural gas or diesel, polyethylene in food packaging is a petrochemical byproduct, and transportation between farms, cold storage facilities, packaging plants, and supermarkets remains heavily reliant on fuel. Consequently, energy prices directly drive up costs across the food supply chain.

Deborah Winswig, CEO and founder of the U.S.-based research firm Courset, said that consumers will feel the ripple effects of rising fuel prices on the supply chain through the price tags on produce, meat, and dairy products at supermarkets.

In some low-income countries, people spend a significant portion of their income on food. These nations import large quantities of grain and fertilizer, and rising oil prices could even trigger food shortages in the near future. A recent report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) noted that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could drive up food prices, with particularly severe consequences for the most vulnerable economies.

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