In February, the world's three largest mining giants—BHP, Rio Tinto, and Glencore—successively released their 2025 annual or 2025 semi-annual financial reports. The reports revealed a clear industry trend: the traditional pillar iron ore business is generally under pressure, while the copper business has surged to become the core engine supporting performance growth. This structural change marks that the global mining industry is undergoing a profound strategic transformation, shifting from relying on traditional commodities to embracing the key metals for the energy transition and the digital age.
The Strong Rise of the Copper Businesses of the Three Giants
And the cyclical pressures on the iron ore business
In 2025, the financial performance of the three major mining giants showed a notable characteristic of "strong copper and weak iron". In 2025, Rio Tinto's underlying profit was $10.87 billion, flat with 2024 but slightly below the market expectation of $11.03 billion. The underlying EBITDA of its iron ore business fell 11% year-on-year, mainly dragged down by falling prices and flat shipment volume. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto's copper business stood out. Thanks to the continuous production increase at the Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia, the mine's copper output rose 11% year-on-year in 2025, and the average realized price increased by 17%, driving the underlying EBITDA of this business to double to $7.37 billion.
BHP's half-year results more clearly reflect this turning point. In the six months ending December 31, 2025, the company's revenue rose 11% year-on-year to US$27.9 billion, and attributable profit increased 28% to US$5.6 billion. CEO Mike Henry called this a "performance milestone for BHP", with the copper business contributing the largest share of profit for the first time, accounting for 51% of underlying EBITDA. In contrast, although the Western Australia iron ore business achieved a record half-year output of 146.6 million tonnes, its profit contribution of US$7.5 billion ranked second. This marks a historic shift where the copper business has overtaken iron ore to become BHP's primary profit driver.
Glencore's 2025 performance saw an overall decline, but structural changes were also evident. In 2025, the company's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) fell 6% year-on-year to $13.51 billion, slightly higher than the market expectation of $13.31 billion. The decline in performance mainly reflected the impact of falling energy and coking coal prices, but stronger metal prices, especially increased zinc earnings, partially offset the weakness in the energy business. Glencore specifically pointed out that its metal traders set a record performance, thanks to the copper business unit's traders successfully capitalizing on trading dislocations and arbitrage opportunities. In the second half of 2025, the group's adjusted earnings increased by nearly 50% compared with the first half, and the adjusted earnings of the industrial division rose by 65%.
Energy Transition and Digitalization Demand
Driving the restructuring of the industry
The performance changes of the three major mining giants are not accidental but a direct reflection of the profound transformations in the global macroeconomy and industrial trends. As the global transition to clean energy accelerates and artificial intelligence data centers generate huge demand for electricity, strategic metals such as copper have become increasingly prominent. Owing to its excellent electrical and thermal conductivity, copper has become an indispensable raw material in key fields including power grid construction, electric vehicles, renewable energy power generation, and data centers. This structural growth in demand is prompting mining companies to re-evaluate their asset portfolios and long-term strategies.
Two weeks before announcing its 2025 results, Rio Tinto had just terminated the merger negotiations with Glencore involving $240 billion. Although the merger did not materialize, the attempt itself indicates that industry giants are actively seeking to enhance their control and resource reserves in key metal sectors through large-scale integration.
According to the official operational bulletin released by BHP in January 2026, its goal is to "plan to achieve an attributable copper production target of approximately 2 million tons by the 2030s". To achieve this goal, the company is advancing multiple projects and actively optimizing its balance sheet to support strategic expansion. Alongside the release of its half-year financial results, BHP entered into an agreement with Wheaton Precious Metals, a Canadian precious metals streaming company, to transfer the future silver production interests corresponding to its stake in the Antamina mine in Peru for an advance payment of US$4.3 billion. This is a typical "silver stream" financing transaction. Prior to this, in December 2025, BHP sold part of the power infrastructure interests in its Western Australia iron ore business to GIP, the global infrastructure partner under BlackRock, for US$2 billion. These two transactions enabled BHP to accumulate a total of US$6.3 billion in funds through asset monetization in the short term. Vandita Pant, the company's Chief Financial Officer, confirmed that BHP aims to raise up to US$10 billion through such transactions. The goal is to provide sufficient "ammunition" for future expansion in sectors such as copper, nickel, and potash.
Glencore is also adjusting its strategic focus. The company maintained its net debt of $11.2 billion in 2025, which was higher than the target of $10 billion, and launched an asset review plan aiming to save $1 billion in costs by the end of 2026, involving the layoff of about 1,000 positions. Meanwhile, Glencore is in talks to sell a 40% stake in its copper and cobalt business in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to a U.S.-backed consortium and is participating in the U.S. $10 billion critical mineral reserve program. These measures show that Glencore is reallocating resources to focus on more strategically significant and growth-potential metal businesses, especially key materials for energy transition such as copper and cobalt.
Cost Pressure and Debt Risks
Challenges such as sustainable operations persist
Although the copper business has brought new growth momentum, global mining giants still face multiple challenges. Rising costs are a common problem. Rio Tinto's iron ore business in the Pilbara region of Western Australia is facing challenges, with annual unit costs increasing by approximately US$0.5 per tonne compared to 2024 due to inflationary pressures and weather-related disruptions. Rio Tinto expects that by 2026, the unit cost of Pilbara iron ore will rise further to between US$23.5 and US$25.0 per wet tonne. Such cost pressure not only erodes profits but also tests the operational efficiency of the company.
Rising debt levels are another financial risk to watch. Rio Tinto's net debt soared from $5.5 billion in 2024 to $14.4 billion in 2025, an increase of 162%, mainly due to large-scale capital investments including the giant Simandou iron ore project in West Africa. The Simandou project itself also faces operational challenges; a fatal accident occurred at the SimFer mine on February 15, 2026, leading to the suspension of the project. This mine has experienced multiple accidents since 2023, and its safety management has been questioned. These factors have collectively put pressure on Rio Tinto's share price, which fell 3.81% on the day the financial report was released.
In 2025, despite a decline in earnings, Glencore demonstrated its initiative in addressing challenges by returning $2 billion to shareholders and launching a cost-saving initiative. BHP, on the other hand, optimized its capital structure through asset sales. Its net debt at the end of the period stood at $14.69 billion, a 25% year-on-year increase, yet the company believes its financial resilience has been enhanced. These different response strategies reflect the differentiated choices made by each company amid the same industry trends.
Looking ahead, the development of the global mining industry will be more closely tied to energy transition and technological progress. BHP expressed a cautiously optimistic attitude towards the global macroeconomic environment, especially the Chinese market, in its report. The company believes that China has shown extremely strong policy resilience in achieving its established economic growth goals, which will continue to support the fundamental demand for bulk commodities. As countries advance their commitments to carbon neutrality, the demand for green metals such as copper, nickel and lithium is expected to grow continuously, which will bring long-term benefits to mining companies that have laid out their plans in advance. However, non-financial factors such as geopolitical risks, the tightening of environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards, community relations, and the shortage of technical talents will also become important variables affecting the future development of the industry.
Overall, the 2025 performance of the three major mining giants heralds the dawn of the "copper is king" era. This fundamental shift is driven by the structural demands of the global energy transition and digitalization. Faced with historic opportunities, the mining giants are actively making strategic layouts through asset restructuring, strategic mergers and acquisitions, and capacity expansion. However, challenges such as cost inflation, rising debt, and operational safety remain severe. Future success in the industry will belong to enterprises that can accurately seize the opportunities of strategic metals, effectively balance financial discipline with long-term investment, and manage various operational risks. The global mining industry is entering a new and more complex development cycle centered on critical metals.
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