According to SunSirs price monitoring, the Chinese PTA spot market price on June 17 was 3,685 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from June 16 and down 34.49% year-on-year. In the futures market, the main futures (2009) rose slightly, to close at 3,712, which was an increase of 32, or 0.87%, from the previous trading day.

The crude oil market price rose. On June 16, the US WTI crude oil main contract settlement price was reported at US$38.38/barrel, an increase of US$1.26, and the Brent crude oil main contract settlement price was reported at US$40.96, an increase of US$1.24. Positive factors such as higher US stocks and a record month-on-month increase in retail data in the United States reflected the signs of more recovery in the US economy and superimposed OPEC+ production reduction expectations. With the help of PX, the closing prices in Asia on the 16th were US$527/ton (FOB Korea) and US$547/ton (CFR China). The domestic PX price is maintained at 4,100 yuan/ton. In terms of installations, Zhenhai Refinery’s 650,000-ton/year PX installation will be shut down for maintenance on June 19 and is expected to continue until July 5.

Regarding the PTA plants, the current operating rate is maintained at around 87%. The Yangzi Petrochemical 3# 650,000 tons/year PTA plant is operating normally and is scheduled to be repaired at the end of June. Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million ton PTA plant load increase, Shanghai Jinshan Petrochemical 400,000 ton plant plan to restart on June 19, later Hanbang Petrochemical 2.2 million ton plant plans to restart in late June, Pengwei Petrochemical PTA plant plan to restart in July, supply side will be pressurized. In addition, China’s social stocks reached around 3.55 million tons, which is close to 90,000 tons compared to the end of May, but it is still at a high level. In addition, the Hengli 5# device is expected to be put into operation in late June, and the situation of short-term PTA accumulation is difficult to change.

In the downstream polyester market, the eighth PET production unit of Hainan Yisheng Petrochemical was put into production on June 12, and the demand for PTA has increased. The current operating load is around 86%. At present, the polyester varieties are still differentiated. In addition to the short fiber and bottle chip profits, the main product filament market is still not good. After experiencing two short production and sales peaks since May, the polyester market has once again entered a cumulative situation. At the same time, as the low season for textile and apparel consumption in June, the end stocks have not been effectively digested, and the purchasing enthusiasm has decreased. Compared with the same period of last year, as the characteristics of the off-season become more and more obvious, the polyester load continues to increase the pressure, and there is a possibility of downward adjustment in July. The price is stable, among which the prices of polyester 150D/48F in mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 5,700-5,900 yuan/ton. In addition, the weaving load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang is stable at 63.40%, but it is still at a low level year on year.

SunSirs analysts believe that in the short term, a rebound in crude oil and a rise in PX will benefit the PTA market mentality. However, due to the drop in oil prices in the previous period, the PTA processing fee has continued to rise from March to April, and the recent increase in PX is far weaker than the upstream market, so that PTA production profits still maintain a good level of 700-800 yuan/ton. The plant will accelerate the resumption of production, making it possible for factories with maintenance plans to postpone, further increasing the supply pressure of PTA. At the same time, facing the traditional low season of summer textiles, the demand for external orders also remains variable, the end demand is uncertain, the downstream manufacturers are not willing to purchase, the market continues to be weak, and the overall trading atmosphere remains mainly light, which is not conducive to the digestion of PTA inventory. Therefore, on the whole, PTA's sustained rebound power is insufficient, and the probability of a later callback is greater.

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