Price trend

Supported by favorable costs, PTA prices had seen a slight rebound recently. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of March 18th, the market price in East China was 5,931 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.15% compared to March 12th.

Analysis review

Due to the escalating situation in Europe and the expected impact of US crude oil destocking, crude oil may break through upwards. As of March 15th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was at 81.04 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract is at 85.34 US dollars per barrel. The price increase of PX had further expanded. Although the domestic PX supply level is still relatively high in the short term, the concentration of equipment maintenance plans in the second quarter, coupled with the investment of new downstream PTA production capacity, will lead to a warming and consolidation of the PX price center.

However, the downstream demand side did not perform as expected, which posed a certain constraint on the upward trend of PTA. "The peak season is not prosperous" has become a new norm in the weaving market in recent years, and this year is no exception. The weaving market started relatively late after the Spring Festival, and orders were also in a lukewarm state. This had led to increased supply pressure in the downstream polyester market in March. Under the situation of high inventory, low gross profit, and high operating rate, polyester factories had to balance the balance between controlling inventory through profit margin shipping and maintaining profit through price boosting shipping. For the short fiber market, under the strengthened cost support and weak self supply and demand game, prices had risen narrowly.

Market outlook

In the short term, cost support remains strong, and the number of new orders issued by the terminal textile and clothing industry may gradually improve. After the domestic and foreign markets gradually improve, the supply and demand pattern will improve, and the rigid demand downstream intention to replenish will further increase. In addition, the planned maintenance of 4.5 million tons of PTA equipment in South China may lead to a decrease in PTA inventory, and PTA prices may remain volatile and operate to be stronger.

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