According to the monitoring of SunSirs, the price of thermal coal fell slightly last week. On June 1, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at about 554.75 RMB/ ton, and on June 5, the average port price of thermal coal was maintained at about 551.75 RMB/ ton, with the overall price falling by 0.54%, 7.89% lower than the same period last year.
On June 7, the thermal coal commodity index was 66.48, unchanged from the previous day, down 35.46% from 103.01 (2011-11-15), the highest point in the cycle, and up 48.72% from 44.70, the lowest point on January 20, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
Analysis of Influencing Factors
In terms of origin, the "two sessions" ended in China. In early June, the control of policies such as coal management ticket was gradually relaxed, production and supply were gradually restored, the downstream procurement was ok, the overall coal price still rose slightly, and the coal price of some coal mines was slightly reduced. It is understood that in recent days, the environmental protection inspection of coal mines in Shenmu area of Shaanxi Province has affected most of the coal mines, which have been shut down for rectification, and the coal volume has been slightly reduced. In addition, some Inner Mongolia customers have turned to Yulin, and the coal price in Shenmu area has been increased by 5-25 RMB/ ton in a stable way. The overall sales situation of coal mines in Yulin area of Shaanxi Province is stable, and the coal on the mine is generally less. Since the completion of the overhaul of Daqin Railway, the transfer in of Beigang port has gradually returned to normal, and the inventory has picked up slightly, while the downstream procurement has slowed down, and the shipment is mainly based on long-term cooperation, and there are not many market coal transactions.
In terms of downstream power plants, after the end of the "two sessions" and the completion of the overhaul of Daqin line, the transfer in level of the port around the Bohai Sea gradually picked up, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market at the beginning of the month, stable quotation from traders and fair transaction. With the arrival of the southern rainy season in the later period, the power generation of hydropower gradually started, the power of thermal power was partially squeezed, and the increase of coal consumption of coastal power plants was limited. At this stage, the inventory of coastal power plants has dropped, and the inventory of key power plants has remained stable. As of June 5, the six major coastal power plants had a stock of 14.435 million tons, a weekly increase of 251,000 tons, a decrease of 1.369 million tons from the same period last month; daily coal consumption of 601,000 tons, a weekly increase of 0.8 million tons, compared with the same period last month, an increase of 52,000 tons from the same period last month; the number of available days was 24.0 days, an increase of 0.1 days from the previous week and a decrease of 4.8 days from the same period last month.
In terms of import, under the stable exploration of domestic coal price and strict control of imported coal, the terminal purchase was suspended, the increase of imported coal price was narrowed, the upstream and downstream wait-and-see mood was strong, the purchase enthusiasm was not strong, the number of transactions was small, and the market trading atmosphere was still cold.
Analysts of SunSirs believe that, in the near future, there has been continuous rain in the south, the daily consumption of coastal power plants is at a low level, and the willingness of the power plants to actively replenish the storage is weak. With the fall of coal demand, coal prices are facing a correction. However, as the weather turns hot, the peak season of coal consumption will officially come. Under the peak season of coal consumption, coal price still has some support. It is comprehensively expected that the supply and demand of thermal coal market will be more optimistic in the later period, and there will be room for increase. However, with the increase of rainwater in the later period, the increase range may not be large. See the downstream market demand for details.
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