1. Price trend
According to SunSirs price monitoring, this week (April 06, 2020-April 10, 2020) the price of medium and heavy plates increased. Puzhong Board (Material: Q235B; Specification: 20) The price on April 06 was 3524 yuan / ton, and the price on April 10 was 3534 yuan / ton, up 0.28% from the beginning of the week. Judging from this week's trend, it is expected that short-term domestic plate prices may run in a stable trend.
2. Analysis of influencing factors
Market situation: This week was boosted by the improvement of the external market. This week, the domestic black system futures fluctuated and pulled up, driving the spot market to follow the trend. The overall construction material prices in Shencheng area rose 40-60 yuan / ton. At the same time, as the weather turned fine, market demand was steadily released, and the transaction performance was eye-catching this week, which has a certain role in promoting the rebound of spot prices. This week, the rebar factory stocks and social stocks continued to decline, an increase from last week. It can be seen that after the demand returned to normal, the market destocking process accelerated again, and businesses were optimistic about the later trend.
Demand: After returning from a small holiday, market demand was released intensively, and the sales volume continued to increase week-on-week. As the project delayed due to the epidemic situation was released, the apparent demand has basically returned to the same level as in previous years. At the same time, due to the current low steel prices, some construction sites have adopted an advance stocking strategy to cope with the subsequent project demand. Therefore, the transaction performance this week is good, which has a certain boost to the spot price.
Inventory: from the perspective of inventory, the rebar inventory in Shanghai this week was 572,400 tons, an increase of 117,000 tons from last week; from the national inventory statistics, the rebar inventory in major cities decreased by 654,300 tons, and the wire stocks Weekly decline of 231,300 tons. This week, the national stock of building materials continued to decline, with a decrease from last week. However, the average daily output of steel mills has also increased by a certain percentage. With the recovery of steel mill profits, some steel mills have also accelerated the pace of resumption of production, and market supply pressure has increased, which may delay the rate of inventory digestion to a certain extent.
Macro aspect: The Financial Stability Development Committee of the State Council (hereinafter referred to as the Financial Commission) convened the 25th meeting on the 7th to summarize the recent progress of financial support for epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and deploy the next phase of key tasks. The meeting proposed to give full play to the pivotal role of the capital market.
In March, new credit is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan. Regarding this year's credit supply, a number of bank executives said that they will continue to maintain steady growth in loans and accelerate the service level for new industries such as the Internet of Things and 5G technology. New infrastructure, traditional infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, etc. will be the key areas of support this year. .
3. Market forecast
As the epidemic in Europe and the United States showed signs of turning points, the international financial market got rid of the unilateral decline and also boosted confidence in the domestic capital market. After the small holiday of the Ching Ming Festival, driven by the rebound of black futures, domestic construction steel prices also showed a volatile rebound trend. With the increase of fine weather, the "Silver Four" effect gradually emerged, and demand across the country basically recovered. The terminal demand in some regions was quickly released, and the need to pick up to support the spot price rose. However, it is worth noting that although the steel stocks have fallen for four consecutive weeks, the current total is at a high level. As the prices of scrap and other steel prices drop, the profits of short-flow steel mills are restored, and the output of electric furnace steel also increases synchronously, which will delay the destocking rate to a certain extent. At the same time, under the influence of epidemics at home and abroad, the selling prices of steel products such as hot coils are lower than that of construction steel, and the export of steel products will also be significantly inhibited in the later period, which will have a negative impact on the trend of construction steel prices.
We are cautious about the future market: demand is generally picking up, inventories are yet to be digested, and uncertainties have not been eliminated. It is expected that short-term domestic plate prices may run in a stable trend.
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