According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from April 9th to 16th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2,545 RMB/ton to 2,640 RMB/ton. During the cycle, the price increased by 3.70%, decreased by 3.00% month on month, and increased by 6.81% year-on-year. In recent times, there has been little contradiction in the fundamentals of methanol. Currently, the domestic methanol plant is still operating at a high level, and there is some resistance from downstream towards high prices. However, the inventory of sample enterprises in mainland China is relatively low, and there is not much pressure on them to ship. In addition, some enterprises are outsourcing, and the overall market atmosphere is still acceptable.
As of the close of April 16th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2409, opened at 2,523 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,536 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,508 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,513 RMB/ton at the end of the trading day, an increase of 10% or 0.40% compared to the previous settlement day. The trading volume was 889,275 lots, and the position was 749,894 lots, with a daily increase of 58,152.
On the cost side, with the continuous decline of coal prices in the early stage, there has been a slight increase in local markets in the production area recently. However, the overall supply and demand structure of the market still shows a loose trend. In addition, with the rise of temperature, terminal daily consumption will gradually show a seasonal decline trend. The weakening of the demand side will make the market continue to rise weakly, and it is expected that coal prices will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
Demand side, downstream formaldehyde: Puyang Pengxin formaldehyde plant shutdown and maintenance, reduced formaldehyde demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: The maintenance and shutdown of the Kaixiang plant in Yima, Henan, and the operation of the Xinxiang and Jiujiang heart to heart plants have increased the demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream chlorides: Shandong Jinling Dongying New Materials Plant plans to resume half load, resulting in increased demand for chlorides; Downstream acetic acid: Shanghai Huayi has maintenance plans, and the previously shut down factories have resumed normal operation, leading to an increase in demand for acetic acid; Downstream MTBE: Lihua Yi has started construction, leading to an increase in MTBE demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, maintenance of equipment in Zhejiang Petrochemical, Shanghai Mongolia Energy, Anyang Shunli, Shaanxi Weihua, and Xinjiang Zhongtai; Xianyang Petroleum and Yankuang Guohong Units have reduced production; Qinghai Zhonghao, Guangxi Huayi, Guotai Xinhua, Shanghai Mongolia Energy, Jiangyou Wanli, Qinghai Salt Lake, Jiutai New Materials (Tuoxian), and Shaanxi Weihua Plant restoration. The recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is affected by bearish factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on April 15th, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was 341.00 to 342.00 US dollars per ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market was 97.00-98.00 cents per gallon, down 3 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 302.50-303.50 euros/ton, up 8 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, coal prices will continue to be weak, and costs will not provide strong support for the market. The basic supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and the strength of mainland spring inspections still needs attention. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the short-term domestic methanol market price consolidation will be the main focus.
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