According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic methanol market has experienced a narrow decline. From March 1st to 29th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic methanol market dropped from 2,740 RMB/ton to 2,593 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 5.35% during the cycle and a year-on-year increase of 2.30%.
At the beginning of the month, the methanol market was mainly operating weakly under supply and inventory pressures, with some downstream main factories shutting down and demand weakening again.
In the first half of the month, with the boost of the port market and the support of some domestic olefin units for external procurement, the market atmosphere was relatively active and shipments were smooth. However, due to the gradual recovery of import supply, downstream purchasing sentiment was relatively average, and the domestic methanol market mainly saw a narrow consolidation.
In the latter half of the month, the domestic methanol market rose and then fell back. At the beginning of the week, supported by downstream external procurement, the domestic methanol market continued to operate strongly. However, downstream procurement sentiment was average, with a focus on essential procurement, resulting in a weakening market atmosphere.
Towards the end of the month, the domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a decline. Downstream olefin factories have reduced their purchases of methanol from mainland China, and the purchasing sentiment in the mainland market is also average, with a focus on maintaining essential procurement.
As of the close of March 29th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2405, opened at 2,465 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,492 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,462 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,490 RMB/ton at the end of the trading day, an increase of 23% or 0.93% compared to the previous settlement day. The trading volume was 606,426 lots, with a position of 673,999 lots and a daily increase of 13,877 lots.
On the cost side, the current coal mine supply remains at a high level, while the non electricity operating rate is lower than expected. Electricity consumption has also entered a off-season mode, and demand performance is weak. Coupled with the continuous fermentation of pessimistic sentiment, market transactions continue to be in a state of suppression. The spring maintenance of the Daqin Line in April is approaching, and although there is an expectation of tightening the supply of goods, the market may form a pattern of supply and demand reduction due to the difficulty in increasing terminal purchasing willingness after the temperature rises, and coal prices will maintain a bottom oscillation trend. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream MTBE: Dongying Shenchi plans to start construction, with an increase in MTBE demand; Downstream dimethyl ether: parking and sorting of Xinxiang Xinlianxin device, start-up of Lankao Huitong device, and start-up plan of Qianjiang Jinhua Runcun, resulting in an increase in demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream acetic acid: Both Hengli and Tianjian have short-term parking plans, resulting in reduced demand for acetic acid; Downstream formaldehyde: Jinyimeng plant increased load, Puyang Pengxin inventory maintenance plan, reduced formaldehyde demand; Downstream chlorides: There have been no changes to the equipment for chlorides, and there is not much fluctuation in demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, Jinfeng Wenxi, Qitaihe Baotailong, Sichuan Lutianhua, middling coal RMBxing, Cathay Pacific Xinhua, Shaanxi Weihua, Shaanxi Huangling equipment maintenance; Yunnan Pioneer, Inner Mongolia Xinao, Guangju New Materials, and Inner Mongolia Donghua Plant have reduced production; Restoration of facilities in Xiaoyi Xindongheng, Yunnan Yuntianhua, Gansu Huating, Inner Mongolia Jiutai, Xinxiang Zhongxin, and Guizhou Chitianhua. In the near future, mainland supply may continue to increase due to bearish factors in methanol supply.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on March 28th, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was 348.00-349.00 US dollars per ton, up 8.75 US dollars per ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market is 103.00-104.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 289.50-290.50 euros/ton, down 11.75 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, coal prices have no support for the market, and both mainland and port sources are showing an increasing trend. However, there is an expectation of weakening consumption levels in traditional downstream and MTO industries, and the supply-demand gap in the industry is further expanding. The methanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that the domestic methanol market will be mainly weak in the short term.
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