According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp have continued to rise recently. On April 12th, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,330 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.93% compared to the average price of 6,210 RMB/ton on April 1st. On April 12th, the average market price of broad-leaved wood pulp in Shandong was 5,700 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.18% compared to the average price of 5,690 RMB/ton on April 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the spot price of wood pulp has been continuously rising since April. In terms of supply, the international market is constantly reporting news of union closures and pulp mill maintenance in Finland, Chile, and Canada, which has increased production uncertainty and continued supply disruptions, leading to expectations of a decrease in imported wood pulp arrivals in the future. In April, international pulp mills showed strong upward pressure, with some external pulp quotes continuing to rise, further supporting the strength of domestic imported wood pulp spot prices.

As of April 11, 2024, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China is 1.874 million tons, an increase of 2.2% from the previous period. The inventory has shown a trend of accumulating after being destocked for six consecutive weeks.

In terms of demand, the downstream is currently in the peak season for bidding orders. With the strengthening of cost support, the increase in downstream finished paper prices is gradually landing. But downstream demand for raw paper is starting to slow down, which may drag down the high volume of pulp prices. Overall, there is still a certain expectation of an increase in demand, which is conducive to supporting the high operation of pulp prices. However, due to the poor improvement of downstream raw paper gross profit margin caused by the high operation of pulp prices, there may be pressure on pulp prices to operate.

In terms of futures, the recent pulp futures prices have continued to be strong, and supply side sentiment continues to ferment, providing upward momentum for pulp prices. On April 12, 2024, the opening price of the main contract of SP2409 pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 6,418 RMB/ton, the closing price was 6,430 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 6,458/ton, with a daily increase of 0.94%. The trading volume was 384,700 lots, and the position was 224,530 lots.

Downstream white cardboard prices have remained stable, with an average market price of 4,973.33 RMB/ton for 230g-400g white cardboard on April 12th, which remains stable compared to the average market price on April 7th. The current situation of oversupply in the white cardboard market still exists, with the gradual increase of new production capacity and intensified market competition. Supported by the strong cost of raw wood pulp, prices are temporarily stable and mainly on a wait-and-see basis.

SunSirs Wood Pulp Analysts believe that the current wood pulp spot market is in the traditional off-season of the papermaking industry, with continuous supply-demand competition and strong supply side disturbance factors. There is still a bullish expectation for external prices, and it is expected that the short-term wood pulp spot price may continue to fluctuate strongly.

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