According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, since March, bullish factors have been continuously emerging, and the domestic soybean meal market has continued to fluctuate and rise. The average market price has exceeded 3,500 RMB/ton, with an overall increase of over 8%. On March 1st, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,292 RMB/ton. On March 18th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,558 RMB/ton, an increase of 8.08%.
Supply side: During the Spring Festival, the operating rate of soybean oil factories was at a low level, and the quantity of imported soybean raw materials continued to decline. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of soybeans in China from January to February 2024 was 13.037 million tons, compared to 14.295 million tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%. In early March, the import volume of soybeans to Hong Kong remained relatively low, the import volume of raw materials declined, the supply of soybean meal tightened, and soybean oil factories mainly raised prices. The soybean meal market continued to rise.
Inventory: According to the domestic soybean meal inventory statistics from November 2023 to March 2024, it can be seen that the growth rate of soybean meal inventory has accelerated since December. In January 2024, soybean meal inventory reached a new high, approaching the first line of 1 million tons. Before and after the Spring Festival, soybean meal inventories continued to decline, and as of the end of February, soybean meal inventories had fallen below 600,000 tons. Starting from March, soybean meal inventory has rebounded and remains at a low level. In the week of March 8th, soybean meal inventory was about 640,000 tons. The inventory level is at a low level, supporting the recovery of the soybean meal market.
Futures: Since March, the external futures market has been bullish, with the USDA report lowering the estimated global soybean production by 1.36 million tons. The market is mostly bullish, and the external price of beans has risen, supported by bullish sentiment. The soybean meal futures market has risen one after another, and the soybean meal spot market has followed suit. On March 18th, the settlement price of the main contract of soybean meal futures was 3,290 RMB/ton, an increase of 7.9% compared to March 1st, when the settlement price of the main contract of soybean meal was 3,049 RMB/ton.
Demand side: Starting from March, the terminal demand for soybean meal has gradually rebounded, and feed enterprises have started to increase production. Soybean meal consumption is relatively fast, and their own soybean meal inventory is relatively low. They have started a phased stocking market, increasing enthusiasm for soybean meal procurement, and the market's soybean meal pickup volume has rebounded. Boosted by rigid demand, the soybean meal market is on the rise.
SunSirs agricultural product analyst believes that by the end of March, South American soybeans will be listed one after another, and the import volume of soybeans to Hong Kong will continue to increase. The pressure on raw material supply will double, and the operating rate of soybean oil factories will increase. The supply of soybean meal will be loose, and the demand for terminal feed will not be increased. The bearish situation is still there, and the sustained upward momentum of the future market is insufficient.
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