Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the 1# tin ingot market in East China rose this week (1.19-1.26), with an average market price of 214,160 RMB/ton at the beginning of last week and 222,510 RMB/ton at the beginning of this week, a weekly increase of 3.9%.

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices had been continuously rising for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, prices had fallen by 11.35% in a single month, and the trend of tin prices had fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the tin ingot market had seen more ups and downs in recent times.

Analysis review

In the futures market, the upward trend continued within the cycle, but as prices rose, the wait-and-see mentality of the spot market gradually arose, with a certain resistance to high prices. As downstream stocking demand gradually weakened. Recently, market trading had been relatively light. In terms of supply, the tight supply pattern at the mining end continued, and it had been further tightened recently. Recently, tin ore processing fees had been reduced by 1,000 yuan/metal ton per month, and the latest customs data showed that the import volume of tin concentrate in December had significantly decreased by 41%, boosting market sentiment. In terms of demand, as the spot market continued to rise, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market had significantly weakened. As the holiday approached, downstream stocking demand had further tightened. As of January 26th, the overall attitude was cautious and wait-and-see. In the long run, the market generally believes that domestic integrated circuit production will continue to rebound in the future, and market expectations are improving compared to the previous period.

Market outlook

Overall, there is still procurement demand downstream in the short term, but high prices have constrained some demand and lack demand support. It is expected that the tin ingot market will operate steadily and to be weaker in the short term. In the long run, market expectations are still acceptable, and there may be some upward potential in the tin ingot market after the holiday.

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