According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from January 12th to 19th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol at East China ports in the domestic market increased by 2,445 RMB/ton from 2,415 RMB/ton. The price increased by 1.21% during the cycle, decreased by 0.44% month on month, and decreased by 9.11% year-on-year. At the beginning of the week, a large equipment in northwest China was not restarted smoothly, and the supply recovery was less than expected. The enthusiasm for trade and procurement was relatively high. Northwest enterprises had smooth shipments, and inventory pressure was not high. In addition, freight rates increased compared to last week, and the prices quoted by the holders were firm. As the equipment gradually recovers, the atmosphere of the domestic methanol market weakens.
As of the close of January 19th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2405, opened at 2,372 RMB/ton, with a highest price of 2,375 RMB/ton and a lowest price of 2,339 RMB/ton. It closed at 2,351 RMB/ton at the end of the trading day, an increase of 1% or 0.04% compared to the previous settlement day. The trading volume was 830,697 lots, and the position was 894,485 lots, with a daily increase of 4,966 lots.
On the cost and supply side, global coal supply remains stable, domestic imports have increased, and the increase in domestic demand is not sufficient to support coal prices at high levels; In terms of demand, the overall pressure on inventory in power plants is relatively low, and the terminal is currently mainly supplemented by long-term contracts and replenished on demand. The demand for coal in the market is relatively flat, and the overall sentiment is wait-and-see. In the short term, the coal market may maintain a volatile and weak operation. The cost side of methanol is influenced by bearish factors.
On the demand side, downstream formaldehyde: Beijing and Hong Kong auxiliary agents plan to stop production, and formaldehyde demand continues to decrease; Downstream chlorides: Luxi Chemical's load reduction operation has reduced the demand for chlorides; Downstream acetic acid: Yangtze River Acetyl and Guangxi Huayi may resume normal operation, leading to an increase in demand for acetic acid; Downstream dimethyl ether: Chongqing Wanlilai has a restart expectation, leading to an increase in demand for dimethyl ether; Downstream MTBE: MTBE has no new start-up or shutdown manufacturers, and there is little fluctuation in demand. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.
On the supply side, Jiutai New Materials (Tuoxian), Inner Mongolia Chifeng BoRMB, and Inner Mongolia Baogang have reduced production; Jiutai New Materials (Tuoxian), Xinjiang Xinye, Shaanxi Weihua, Inner Mongolia Chifeng Boyuan, and Inner Mongolia Baogang facilities have been restored. The overall recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, resulting in an increase in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is affected by bearish factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on January 18th, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was $349.50-$350.50/ton. The closing price of methanol in the Gulf methanol market in the United States was 94.00-95.00 cents/gallon, up 2 cents/gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 268.25-269.25 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton.
Future predictions suggest that coal price support may be limited. There is currently no obvious contradiction between supply and demand fundamentals, and there is still procurement demand in the downstream before the holiday. However, as the year-end approaches, logistics vehicles are gradually decreasing. Methanol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic methanol market will continue to consolidate and operate in the short term.
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