According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market has a narrow range of fluctuations. From December 8th to 15th, the price of MTBE dropped from 6,537 RMB/ton to 6,367 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 2.60% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 3.34%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.38%.
The domestic MTBE market has shown strong performance in the first half of the week, with prices pushing up. Supported by the positive rise in crude oil, manufacturers have actively pushed prices. However, after a narrow push up, terminal demand has not followed up well, and manufacturers have slowed down their shipments. In the second half of the week, with a sharp drop in international crude oil prices, the market has entered a downward trend. There is a large supply of domestic resources, and in addition, many businesses have hoarded goods in the early stage, with manufacturers actively increasing their volume. Prices have fluctuated and fallen, and local declines are obvious.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International crude oil futures continued to decline in December, with oil prices reaching a six-month low. This was mainly due to the unexpected rise in CPI data and the rebound in inflation, which lowered market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut at the beginning of next year; The crude oil market has shown a downward trend due to market concerns about oversupply. The unexpected rise in inflation data has added insult to injury to the already weak oil market, exacerbating the decline in crude oil; The results of the OPEC+ production policy meeting did not meet market expectations, as the reduction in production was less than expected; Secondly, the voluntary nature of the reduction in production is questionable, and the supply side will face greater pressure in the future.
On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, the winter car travel on the demand side is relatively stable. However, in the absence of holiday support, the demand side lacks favorable support, and the gasoline market has reached a relatively low level, with a slight decline in the gasoline market. The decline in the gasoline market has provided moderate support for the MTBE market. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, facilities such as Shenyang Wax Chemical, Dongying Qifa, Haite Weiye, Debao Road, and Qingzhou Tianan are still in shutdown, and some manufacturers have low operating loads, resulting in a narrow reduction in short-term resource supply. The supply side of MTBE is influenced by favorable factors.
As of the close on December 14th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $34/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $848.24-850.24/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market has decreased by $0.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $972.49-972.99/ton. The closing price of the US MTBE market increased by $33.33/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $854.76-855.11/ton (240.78-240.88 cents per gallon).
In the future market forecast, the expectation of a new round of retail price restrictions on refined oil products is expected to plummet, and the gasoline market is expected to be weak. Local large-scale rain and snow weather will also suppress market trading. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market is mainly volatile and consolidating in the short term.
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