According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market is showing a fluctuating trend. From April 1st to 26th, the price of MTBE increased from 7,275 RMB/ton to 7,462 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 2.58% during the cycle and a maximum amplitude of 5.15%. The price decreased by 1.49% year-on-year.
In the first half of the month, the domestic MTBE market mainly fluctuated and rose, while international crude oil closing prices continued to rise due to increased geopolitical risks. At the same time, gasoline prices also rose. At the same time, gasoline shipping orders were good, and businesses had a high enthusiasm for purchasing related gasoline raw materials. MTBE manufacturers shipped smoothly, inventory levels continued to decline, and there were still sporadic export orders signed. Coupled with temporary shutdowns of some equipment, the overall multiple benefits were good, and the domestic MTBE market actively drove up.
In the middle of the month, some companies have moved their equipment to port earlier, suspended export sales, and Shandong Shenfa has stopped maintenance. There are relatively few MTBE resources available for sale in the market, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not high. Therefore, manufacturers are actively pushing up their prices again. Downstream end users are still actively seeking to purchase, and there is not much pressure on manufacturers to ship. The MTBE market price has once again risen to a high level.
In the latter half of the month, the price increase is closely related to the escalation of geopolitical risks. Business owners are optimistic about crude oil, while gasoline prices have risen, and MTBE has followed suit. However, geopolitical conflicts have slowed down, and international crude oil has fallen. In addition, the supply of MTBE resources has increased, and Lihua Yi, Shenchi, Luqing and others have all resumed export sales. Spot supply has increased, but demand has not followed significantly, leading to a correction and consolidation.
As the end of the month approaches, with the decline of crude oil and the low acceptance of high prices by downstream businesses, the MTBE market has fallen and consolidated. With abundant resource supply, manufacturers are willing to prioritize volume, and the Lihuayi unit temporarily shut down, but immediately resumed work. Units such as Qingzhou Tian'an and Lushenfa have resumed production after starting work, and the situation of abundant resource supply continues, with prices remaining at a high level of consolidation.
On the cost side, the current environment for crude oil is relatively complex, and the performance of oil prices is also relatively stagnant and anxious. Macro and demand are suppressing oil prices in the short term, and the space for further upward movement of oil prices is being suppressed. In addition, given that the current geopolitical tensions have not escalated, crude oil has the potential to mitigate risk premiums and reshape valuation expectations. But the risk has not been lifted, coupled with the start of the North American driving season, gasoline demand is expected to rise, which will provide support for oil prices. Overall, the supply and demand game in the oil market will intensify in the short term, and there is a greater possibility of oil prices maintaining high volatility. As of the close on April 25th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $87.77 per barrel, an increase of $0.73 or 0.8%.
On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, international crude oil futures rose first and then fell, while the finished oil market was weak and declining. The main reason is that due to insufficient increase in terminal demand and no obvious positive news, the enthusiasm of middle and downstream merchants to enter the market for procurement has decreased. As the May Day holiday approaches, terminal operators have a certain demand for stocking up, but the supply of MTBE resources is still relatively high. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, facilities such as Dongying Qifa, Minghao Chemical, Shandong Yuhuang, Qingzhou Tian'an, and Binzhou Jingbo are currently in shutdown. The production of Anqing Taifa facilities has significantly increased after the start of construction, while Shandong Shenfa and Qingzhou Tianjian are scheduled to start construction on April 18th and have not yet produced any products. Next week, as Lu Shenfa and Qingzhou Tianan start producing products, it is expected that production will increase. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
In the future, it is predicted that with the gradual resumption of work by most shutdown manufacturers, the situation of abundant resource supply will continue. Looking at the demand for gasoline, the May Day holiday is approaching, and the replenishment of inventory by businesses is coming to an end. At the same time, the retail price limit of finished oil products will be lowered, and the support for demand is insufficient. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic MTBE market may mainly consolidate at high levels.
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