Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from November 27th to December 4th, the domestic ethyl alcohol price dropped from 6,825 RMB/ton to 6,787 RMB/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.55%, a month on month decrease of 1.38%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.55%. The increase in freight rates in some regions had led to a slight increase in delivery prices, but the factory's shipment situation was weak, with actual orders mainly operating at the low-end. The domestic ethyl alcohol market was operating to be weaker.

Analysis review

On the cost side, with the gradual improvement of weather, the main production area in Northeast China had seen a continuous increase in corn market volume. The new season of corn production had become a certainty, and downstream trading entities had a strong wait-and-see attitude. The demand for feed in the downstream breeding industry continued to be sluggish, and imported corn and its substitutes continued to arrive at ports. The domestic corn market supply was relatively loose, and the overall price of corn in the market was under pressure and fluctuated to be weaker. The cost side of ethyl alcohol provided bearish factors for the market.

On the supply side, there was a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 32.85% operating in East China and 94.98% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in the southern and western regions was 15.84%; In the short term, domestic ethyl alcohol production in Northeast China was stable or slightly increasing, and small factories had plans to start production. The operating rate in East China fluctuated at a low level. The operating rate of ethyl alcohol produced by coal remains stable in the short term. The supply side of ethyl alcohol provided bearish factors for the market.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintained normal production status. There is a possibility of restoring the ethyl acetate factory. Baijiu was purchased just on demand. The short-term demand for ethyl alcohol is mixed.

Market outlook

Cost was bearish, with significant regional differences in supply and demand. Ethyl alcohol analysts from SunSirs predict that the domestic ethyl alcohol market may experience weak consolidation in the short term.

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