Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde had slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 7,483.33 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 7,750.00 RMB/ton at the weekend, an increase of 3.56%, and the weekend price increased by 22.37% year-on-year.

On November 20th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 39.34 points, unchanged from the previous day, a decrease of 62.74% from the cycle's highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 30.61% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

Analysis review

From the supply side perspective, mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde had slightly increased their quotations this week, and inventory was low. The factory quotation for Lihuayi’s isobutyraldehyde over the weekend was 7,700 RMB/ton, an increase of 400 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng's isobutyraldehyde factory quotation for the weekend was 8,100 RMB/ton, an increase of 400 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the week; Shandong Zhenkun had a weekend distribution quotation for Luxi Chemical’s isobutyraldehyde at 7,450 RMB/ton, which was temporarily stable compared to the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde had slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7,203.25 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 7,198.25 RMB/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.07%. The weekend prices had dropped by 0.45% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices had slightly declined, and cost support had weakened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol had slightly declined, dropping from 10,325.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 10,110.00 RMB/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.18%, and the weekend price has increased by 9.78% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol ha, slightly declined, and downstream demand had weakened, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

Market outlook

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late November may be mainly fluctuating and declining. The downstream market for neopentyl glycol had slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm had weakened. The upstream propylene market had shown a downward trend over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. SunSirs’ isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

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