According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market has unilaterally declined. From November 7th to 14th, the price of MTBE dropped from 6,662 RMB/ton to 6,575 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 1.31% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 14.74%, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.79%.
The crude oil market is still in a downward trend, and the MTBE market has once again entered a downward adjustment. The overall operating trend is weak, and the gasoline market is under pressure and is mainly on a wait-and-see basis. Operators are cautious in purchasing relevant gasoline raw materials. Due to the active negotiation of MTBE export orders and some manufacturers exporting to Hong Kong, the decline in the MTBE market is limited due to the slight improvement.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: During the same period (November 7-14), international crude oil prices remained in a low and volatile trend, mainly due to the easing of the geopolitical situation, global economic weakness, and a sudden increase of nearly 12 million barrels in commercial crude oil storage in the United States, increasing market concerns about the demand outlook. As of the close on November 13th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures' main contract was $82.52 per barrel, an increase of $1.09 dollars or 1.3%.
On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, the gasoline market is operating weakly. International crude oil futures fluctuated and declined, while the finished oil market in Shandong region rose first and then declined. With the international oil prices falling again, the bearish atmosphere in the oil market in the region is gradually rising. Intermediaries are cautious in ordering large orders, while downstream users purchase more on demand, and market transactions are mainly small orders. Short term MTBE demand side is influenced by bearish factors.
On the supply side, facilities such as Shenyang Wax Chemical, Dongying Qifa, and Maoming Shihua are still in parking. The Qingzhou Tian'an facility is feeding and will produce products normally in the short term. Maoming Shihua also has plans to start production, and there are expectations of increasing resource supply. MTBE's supply side is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on November 13th, the Asian MTBE market is closed during the Ghost Slaying Festival. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $18.24 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $887.63-887.99 per ton (250.04-250.14 cents per gallon). The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $27 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1,120.99-1,121.49 per ton.
In the future, the fundamentals are still relatively empty, resource supply is relatively abundant, and gasoline demand is still weak. In addition, manufacturers have been experiencing poor shipments for several days, resulting in an increase in inventory. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that in the short term, the narrow consolidation of the domestic MTBE market is the main trend.
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