According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the asphalt market has experienced a narrow downward trend. From November to the 14th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region has dropped from 3,806 RMB/ton to 3,587 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5.74%, a month on month decrease of 5.74%, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.83%. The main reason for the decline in asphalt prices is the significant decline in international crude oil, which weakens cost support. In addition, the main production enterprise Sinopec has lowered its main prices twice in a row, leading to a decline in asphalt prices in some regions. The market is mostly dominated by low-priced transactions, and brand competition is relatively fierce.
In terms of supply, the main production enterprises have suspended production in Qinhuangdao, China National Petroleum Corporation, and shifted production from China National Petroleum Corporation to China National Petroleum Corporation, which has led to a decrease in production in the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, with a positive impact on the supply side.
On the cost side, the international crude oil prices remained in a low and volatile trend during the same period (November 7-14), mainly due to the easing of the geopolitical situation, global economic weakness, and a sudden increase of nearly 12 million barrels in commercial crude oil storage in the United States, increasing market concerns about the demand outlook. As of the close on November 13th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures' main contract was $82.52 /barrel, an increase of $1.09 dollars or 1.3%.
On the demand side, many regions in the north have experienced cliff like cooling weather, with limited terminal construction conditions and a noticeable weakening of demand; Due to rainy weather in the southern region, demand is not warm or hot, resulting in significant shipping pressure. The demand side of the asphalt market is influenced by bearish factors.
As of the close on November 14th, the oil asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2401 opened at 3,558 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 3,564 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 3,507 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,561 RMB/ton in the end, a decrease of 8 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.22%. The trading volume was 224,102 lots, the holding volume was 220,472 lots, and the daily increase was -4,395.
According to future market forecasts, from the supply side, Yangzi Petrochemical and Jiangsu Xinhai have successively resumed production of asphalt, while Shandong Qicheng and Henan Fengli plan to produce asphalt in the middle of the year, with a relatively concentrated increase in short-term supply. On the demand side, there is a significant cooling in the north, rainy weather in the south, limited construction, and significant shipping pressure. In the short term, both cost and demand have weakened, and the supply-demand relationship may be imbalanced. SunSirs asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market is operating weakly.
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