According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic asphalt market fluctuated and rose in September. From September 1st to 28th, the average price of asphalt producers in Shandong Province decreased from 3,747 RMB/ton to 3,909 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.43%, and the price decreased by 12.22% year-on-year.
In terms of cost and crude oil, the crude oil market continued to fluctuate and rise in September. At the beginning of the month, it was reported that OPEC+ production reduction in oil producing countries will continue until the end of 2023. As the reduction takes effect, the expectation of supply tightening will heat up the oil market. In the middle to late period of the year, the crude oil price market reached a turning point. The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged as expected, but its attitude was hawkish. It is expected that there will still be a possibility of interest rate hikes within the year, and energy demand expectations will be suppressed, putting pressure on oil prices. Overall, crude oil prices are still at a high level.
In terms of supply, there are currently no production plans for Cangzhou Xingaoyuan and Cangzhou Jincheng. Wudi Xinyue, Dongming, and Qilu Petrochemical have switched to producing residual oil, and Yangzi Petrochemical has stopped production. In addition, Jinling Petrochemical has reduced production, which has led to a decrease in overall supply in the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has decreased compared to the previous month, with a positive impact on the supply side.
On the demand side, the demand in the asphalt market is relatively stable, with varying demand in different regions. Overall, there is a differentiation in demand, while the demand in the northern region is performing well, especially in the northwest, Inner Mongolia, and northeast regions, which are in a rush stage. The release of demand from downstream terminals is relatively concentrated; The southern region has been continuously affected by rainy weather recently, and the downstream construction process may be constrained by this. Operators are often cautious in purchasing according to demand, and the actual investment atmosphere is not good. The demand side of the asphalt market has a mixed impact.
As of the close of September 27th, the oil asphalt futures market has risen. The main asphalt contract 2311 was opened at 3,874 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 3,957 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 3,865 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,931 RMB/ton in the last trading day, an increase of 57 RMB/ton or 1.47% compared to the settlement on the previous trading day. The trading volume was 196,668 lots, the position was 164,991 lots, and the daily increase was -8,159.
In the future, it is predicted that international crude oil will continue to be at a high level, and the cost of asphalt will be supported. However, the overall resource supply is relatively high, and spot resources are relatively abundant. SunSirs asphalt analysts predict that the short-term domestic asphalt market will mainly consolidate at a high level.
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