According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market first fell and then rose. From September 8th to 15th, the price of MTBE increased from 7,950 RMB/ton to 8,050 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.26% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 5.40%, and a year-on-year increase of 10.58%. The international crude oil trend is good, while the demand for gasoline continues to be positive. MTBE prices continue to rise after a moderate decline from high levels. At the same time, some export orders are still gathering in the port, and the supply of temporary resources is tight, forming a bottom support for the market.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil, expectations of supply tightening have overshadowed concerns about slowing economic growth and increasing US inventories. As of the close on September 14th, the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was at $93.70 per barrel, an increase of $1.82 or 2.0%. The domestic oil industry chain is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, in terms of gasoline, the rise in international oil prices and the expectation of a new round of retail price restrictions are both positive for the oil market. At the same time, supported by the upcoming double holidays, some manufacturers may stock up in advance, coupled with cost support, the gasoline market remains high, and businesses have a high enthusiasm for MTBE procurement. The MTBE market is steadily rising. As of the 15th, the benchmark price of gasoline for SunSirs is 9,006.40 RMB/ton. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, facilities such as Shenyang Wax Chemical, Lihuayi, and Yantai Wanhua are still in shutdown. After the start of shipment by Lushenfa, it continues to affect this week's production, leading to a continued increase in production this week. On September 13th, the Dongying Qifa facility underwent maintenance, which is expected to last for one week. The MTBE supply side is mixed.
As of the close on September 14th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $10/ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $1,053.05- $1,055.05/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $25/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1,542.99- $1,543.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $1.52 per ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $1,630.22- $1,630.58 per ton (459.22- $459.32 per gallon).
In the future market forecast, the current high price has hindered the profits of end-users, and there is a certain resistance towards high prices; There is a construction plan for the Lihuayi heterogeneous device next week, so it is expected that the resource supply will increase at that time. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that there is a possibility of a narrow pullback in the domestic MTBE market in the short term.
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