According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the asphalt market is fluctuating and rising. From September 4th to 11th, the price of asphalt in Shandong region increased from 3,776 RMB/ton to 3,804 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.75%, a month on month increase of 0.75%, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.61%. Driven by international crude oil, the cost has significantly increased, leading to a rise in mainstream refinery prices. In addition, low price resources have decreased at the beginning of the month, resulting in an increase in high market prices and relatively firm prices. Some regions are in the stage of accelerating construction, and downstream terminal demand has been boosted, with significant price increases.
In terms of supply, the main production enterprises include Hebei Xinhai's normal production, Keyu's resumption of asphalt production, Qilu's stable production of asphalt, Yangzi Petrochemical's intermittent production, Jinling Petrochemical's increase in production, and Yunnan Petrochemical's intermittent production, which have driven an overall increase in supply in the area. The comprehensive operating rate of the asphalt industry has increased month on month, with negative impacts on the supply side.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures prices have continued to rise, boosted by expectations of supply tightening due to prolonged production cuts in Saudi Arabia and Russia, and coupled with the rise in US diesel futures, oil prices have rebounded. As of the close on September 8th, the settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $90.65 per barrel, an increase of $0.73 or 0.8%.
On the demand side, the demand for asphalt in the market is relatively flat, with varying demands from different regions. The overall demand is somewhat differentiated, with some projects in the northern region being supported, while the overall demand in the southern region is relatively flat. Some areas are affected by typhoons and road construction is hindered. The demand side of the asphalt market has a relatively stable impact.
As of the close of September 11th, the petroleum asphalt futures market has declined. The main asphalt contract 2311 was opened at 3,873 RMB/ton, with a maximum price of 3,879 RMB/ton and a minimum price of 3,834 RMB/ton. It closed at 3,858 RMB/ton in the end of the trading day, a decrease of 15 RMB/ton or 0.39% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 189,013 lots, the position was 264,406 lots, and the daily increase was -10,458 lots.
In the future, it is predicted that international crude oil will fluctuate at high levels, with some support for asphalt costs. However, the overall resource supply is relatively high, and spot resources are relatively abundant. SunSirs asphalt analysts predict that the domestic asphalt market will mainly maintain stability in the short term.
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