According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic MTBE market has seen a narrow rise. From July 10th to 14th, the price of MTBE increased from 7,137 RMB/ton to 7,287 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 2.10% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.52%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.57%. The international crude oil market is supported, with production enterprises Lihuayi and Shenchi exporting to the port. At the same time, Shouguang Luqing currently has no export sales, and Dongming Qianhai has made internal transfers for some time. Most manufacturers have supplied a large number of early orders, so the supply of goods is tight for a while, and the MTBE market price immediately rises.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: US inflation data has fallen, core CPI growth is less than expected, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to slow down interest rate hikes, providing support for oil prices. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $75.75 per barrel, an increase of $0.92 or 1.2%. The settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $80.11 per barrel, an increase of $0.71 or 0.9%. International crude oil futures continued to rise, and the domestic Petroleum industry chain was positively affected.
In terms of demand and gasoline, this round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on July 12. The retail price of this round of refined oil has once again increased, and the retail price adjustment in 2023 has gone through "five rises, six falls, and two stalls". During the cycle, the crude oil market has risen, and the rate of change remains positive. This round of refined oil retail prices will be raised for the sixth time this year. The demand side of MTBE is influenced by favorable factors.
On the supply side, for enterprises, facilities such as Shenyang Wax Chemical and Dongying Qifa are still in shutdown, and Luoyang Hongli will start shipping normally. MTBE supply is gradually increasing, and the supply side is showing a negative impact.
As of the close on July 13th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $2/ton compared to the previous trading day, while FOB Singapore closed at $943.74-945.74/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $22.75/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB ARA closed at $1093.99- $1094.49/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $4.12/ton compared to the previous trading day, while the FOB Gulf price closed at $982.67-983.02/ton (276.81-276.91 cents per gallon).
In the future, it is predicted that after the completion of the integration of Lihuayi and Shenchi ports, the resource supply will further increase. After the price rises to a high level, manufacturers' shipments will slow down. SunSirs MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market situation may be dominated in the short term.
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