Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, cement in East China had recently experienced a weak decline. The price for this week was 422.00 RMB/ton, while the price for the weekend was 415.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.66% and a month on month decrease of 1.89%. The price decreased by 19.10% compared to last year.

Analysis review

Recently, cement in some areas of East China had slightly declined. From SunSirs, it can be seen that after a month of stable cement market in spring this year, pricese started to decline recently. Cement prices in Jiangsu, Wuxi, Anqing, and other places declined by 10-20 RMB/ton. From January to March 2023, the national cement production reached 402.34 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%; In March, the national cement production reached 205.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. Recently, there were more rainy weather in East China, the construction progress on the construction site was slow, market competition was intensifying, and cement prices were weak and declining.

The price of thermal coal was weaker this week. In terms of origin, the coal mines in the production area maintained normal production, and the coal supply side was relatively stable. Domestic coal prices continued to be weak, and the market trading atmosphere was relatively cold. There was relatively few coal hauling vehicles on the mine as a whole. In terms of downstream ports, the price of thermal coal in ports was weak, and the market trading atmosphere was average. Downstream demand was mainly based on on-demand procurement. The power plant was in the off-season of consumption, with weakened demand for coal, the market transaction was cold and the willingness to purchase was low.

On the morning of April 18th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the "Basic Situation of the National Real Estate Market from January to March 2023", which showed that in the first quarter, the national real estate development investment was 2,597.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%; The sales area of commercial housing is 299.46 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%; The sales revenue of commercial housing reached 3,054.5 billion RMB, an increase of 4.1%; The decline in paid funds for real estate development enterprises had significantly narrowed, with the decline in deposits, prepayments, and personal mortgage loans narrowing to 2.8% and 2.9%. The degree of downstream recovery generally had limited support for the cement market.

Market outlook

According to the prediction of SunSirs, the recent rainy weather has had a significant impact, resulting in poor cement sales and an increase in inventory. Therefore, analysts of SunSirs's cement products believe that in the short term, the cement market will mainly decline.

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