According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, cement in East China has recently experienced a weak decline, with prices at 300.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and 298.00 RMB/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.67% and a month on month decrease of 3.25%. The current price has dropped by 29.55% year-on-year.
Recently, cement in some areas of East China has been fluctuating and consolidating. From the above chart, it can be seen that the cement market has been mainly fluctuating and declining in the past three months, with slight price fluctuations this week. Continuous rainfall in the East China region has led to sluggish demand and average enterprise shipments. In addition, most clinker lines have resumed production, increasing inventory pressure and a weak consolidation of the cement market.
Coal prices have fluctuated and consolidated this week. In terms of origin, long-term cooperative shipping is mainly implemented, and overall market transactions are weak. In terms of downstream ports, the price of thermal coal is operating weakly. Power plants tend to adopt a wait-and-see attitude and purchase according to demand. As the temperature gradually rises, the demand for electric coal consumption may continue to be average, and the demand for replenishment in non electric industries is average. Overall, it is expected that the price of thermal coal will continue to operate weakly, depending on downstream market demand.
From January to February 2024, the national real estate development investment was about 1.18 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.0%, which is 0.6 percentage points narrower than that of January to December 2023; Among them, residential investment was 882.3 billion RMB, a decrease of 9.7%. From January to February, the construction area of real estate development enterprises reached 6.669 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.0%; The newly constructed area of housing is 94.29 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 29.7%. Among them, the newly started residential construction area decreased by 30.6%. In recent years, real estate investment has gradually declined, and infrastructure demand is difficult to hedge against the impact of the real estate downturn. The support for the cement market is weak.
According to the prediction of SunSirs, the current cement inventory is high, market demand and sales remain weak, and infrastructure is difficult to drive the sluggish market. Therefore, cement product analysts from SunSirs believe that the cement market will mainly experience a slight decline in the short term.
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