The latest price of gold (March 20): 443.07 RMB / gram, the market outlook is bullish

Analysis points: On March 20, the spot market price of gold rose by 3.12% in a single day. Weakening interest rate hike expectations in Europe and the United States: Affected by bank risk factors (three U.S. banks declared bankruptcy last week), the Federal Reserve actively expanded its balance sheet to rescue U.S. commercial banks. The exacerbated problem of structural inversion and the sharp increase in the proportion of HTM assets in the banking industry have caused a large number of "floating losses" in the banking industry's bond assets, which has exacerbated concerns about the banking industry's ability to resist risks. Coupled with the liquidity run after the thunderstorm, investors are still suspicious of asset-side risks such as U.S. commercial banks’ treasury bonds and real estate, and even worry about an economic recession, making the market expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March or even stop raising interest rates . Traders are now pricing in a 60.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed on March 22, and a 39.5% chance of keeping rates unchanged, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. At present, the market focus turns to the Fed's March interest rate meeting on March 22. In Europe, the European Central Bank announced a 50bp rate hike on Thursday, but did not provide guidance on interest rates in May. Credit Suisse was acquired by a Swiss bank with a guarantee from the Swiss government, but it was hard to say that the potential risks were resolved, making the market expect the ECB to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May. . The recent rise in risk aversion is due, on the one hand, to the support of gold prices due to international geopolitical risk events, and some international safe-haven funds seek the safe-haven function of gold; The weakening of interest rate hike expectations in Europe and the United States will also benefit the price of precious metals to a certain extent.

Market outlook forecast: Therefore, in the short term, the bullish sentiment on precious metals is rising, and the price of precious metals is mainly stable and relatively strong.

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