The domestic supply side as a whole presented a sufficient trend in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the limited maintenance volume, the expected commissioning of new units, and the expected restart of previously shut-down units, the effects of which were superimposed. At the same time, the demand side of toluene in the fourth quarter not only showed the effects of the traditional off-season but also the decreased activity of oil product terminal consumption.

In the third quarter of 2025, the toluene market was affected by the weak supply and demand and the decline of related products, leading to price fluctuations and downward pressure. However, as prices gradually dropped to a lower level, the market's resistance to decline increased, and the decline narrowed compared to the second quarter. The main driving factor for the price decline was the imbalance in the supply and demand fundamentals, especially the demand that did not meet expectations, which dragged the toluene market to fluctuate and decline. Additionally, the decline of related products such as pure benzene and xylene also further affected the toluene market. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, some newly built facilities may have production plans, and there is an expectation of an increase in supply. On the demand side, it enters the sales off-season, and it is expected to continue the weak trend. Overall, it is still difficult for the supply and demand fundamentals to improve, and it is highly likely that the domestic toluene market in the fourth quarter will continue to decline.

Due to the fundamental imbalance between supply and demand, the domestic toluene market showed a fluctuating downward trend in the third quarter of 2025. As of September 28, the average price of toluene in Jiangsu during the third quarter was 5,468 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.09% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 21.31% compared to the same period last year. The average price of each month in the third quarter was at a medium to low level among the historical five years.

Analytically, on the supply side, as the second quarter's concentrated maintenance period comes to an end, the production rhythm of the equipment gradually returns to normal in the third quarter, and the enterprises that have undergone maintenance in the early period gradually resume production; at the same time, some new toluene equipment are put into operation and release capacity, which is driven by the dual factors to gradually increase the domestic toluene supply.

In contrast, the demand side of toluene is in a weak state. Among them, the performance of gasoline ship orders in the third quarter is differentiated, with only a month-on-month increase in July, and the ship orders of gasoline continue to decline in August and September, resulting in a weakening demand for refined products. However, some PX enterprises have a certain demand for toluene raw materials, but due to the limited purchase volume and the low price in some stages, the support for the toluene market is weak, and it is difficult to reverse the overall weakness of the demand side. In addition, it is also affected by the decline of related products such as pure benzene and xylene, further dragging down the toluene market. The lowest price of toluene in the third quarter was 5310 RMB/ton, the highest value was 5670 RMB/ton, and the amplitude was 6.78%.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, on the one hand, there are fewer苯乙烯 maintenance enterprises, and some new devices or have the expectation of production, the supply side may increase. On the other hand, the fourth quarter is the off-season of demand, the demand side is still weak, and the crude oil price is still under pressure, the cost-driven is insufficient. Comprehensive analysis, the fourth quarter of the toluene market is still weak.

Specifically, the domestic supply side as a whole presented a sufficient situation in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the superposition of three factors: limited maintenance volume, the expected commissioning of new units, and the expected restart of previously shut-down units.

Firstly, from the perspective of device maintenance, the number of domestic toluene maintenance enterprises in the fourth quarter is relatively small, with only sporadic maintenance plans. Due to the limited number of maintenance subjects and the fact that most planned maintenance devices are relatively small in scale, it is expected that the maintenance loss volume caused by maintenance will remain at a low level throughout the quarter, and the supply of goods at the enterprise end is relatively sufficient.

Secondly, from the perspective of new production capacity release, the domestic toluene market in the fourth quarter will welcome a wave of new equipment commissioning, such as Henan Fengli, Guangxi Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, and Yulong Petrochemical cracking unit, etc., all of which are expected to be commissioned, with a total capacity of about 500,000 tons.

Again, the restart of the front-end parking device is also expected to add bricks to the supply side, and enterprises such as Zhenghe, Huaxing, and Changyi may resume production in the fourth quarter. If these new devices can be put into production smoothly and the restart devices can be started smoothly, the overall supply of the domestic toluene market will be further expanded, and at that time, it may drag the market to a certain extent.

Meanwhile, in the fourth quarter, the demand side of toluene is not only affected by the off-season effect of traditional demand, but also by the active consumption of oil products at the terminal and the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, which forms a long-term substitutionary pressure on the traditional fuel market and further restrains the market demand space for oil products. It is expected that the overall market of oil products will turn淡in the fourth quarter, and there may be a short-term replenishment demand after the National Day, but there is a lack of sustained growth momentum in the demand side.

In addition, the pure benzene market in the fourth quarter may still face downward pressure. Some newly built toluene cracking units are expected to be delayed in production, which means that the new demand in the toluene cracking field in the fourth quarter is difficult to be realized. Downstream enterprises are highly likely to continue to maintain the operation strategy of purchasing mainly for刚性 needs, which has limited pull on the toluene market.

Overall, the domestic toluene market demand side lacks positive support in the fourth quarter, and the factors such as the decline in the refined oil market and the actual demand for isomerization is not as expected will lead to a general demand showing a sluggish state, which will then form a certain constraint on the toluene market.

In addition, from the perspective of cost, the oil price is still weak and fluctuating, and there is no strong support from the cost side.

To sum up, the supply side of toluene in the fourth quarter is expected to increase, but the demand side is still weak. The supply and demand continue to play a game, and the lack of cost-driven makes the domestic toluene market overall show a weak trend. However, as the price gradually falls to a low level, the market's resistance to falling will increase. Some downstream and traders may gradually release their demand for inventory replenishment at low levels, and the speculative demand is also expected to increase, which will drive the transaction volume to recover slightly. If the crude oil price rises to support, the domestic toluene market in December may welcome a stage of rebound.

The overall forecast is that the domestic toluene market is expected to show a pattern of falling first and then rising in the next three months. The expected monthly average prices for October, November, and December are 5300 RMB/ton, 5250 RMB/ton, and 5320 RMB/ton, respectively, with the quarterly low point potentially occurring in November, and prices may drop to around 5200 RMB/ton.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices; On October 10th, the benchmark price of toluene on SunSirs was 5,300.00 RMB per ton, a decrease of 0.56% compared with the beginning of this month (5,330.00 RMB per ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.