Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the toluene market experienced a volatile decline in September 2025. From September 1 to 26, the domestic toluene market price fell from 5,420 RMB/ton to 5,370 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.92% over the period.

Mid-to-early September: The toluene market remained volatile and weak, with weak crude oil prices dragging down market sentiment and continuing to decline. Prices in Shandong Province fell overall last week, dragged down by the crude oil market. Negotiations in East China were sluggish, with offers generally low. In South China, due to easing supply, downstream market participation remained subdued, leading to price cuts at major refineries and overall weak market sentiment.

Late September: The domestic toluene market fluctuated within a range during this period. Supply and demand in Shandong remained stable, with demand from downstream chemical and oil blending industries remaining stable and purchasing based on essential needs. The East China market remained relatively stable, with downstream market participation remaining subdued. The South China market lacked clear news guidance, resulting in minimal market fluctuations.

Analysis review

Cost:

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of September 26th, the November settlement price of US WTI crude oil futures was $65.72 per barrel. The December settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $69.22 per barrel. During this round of price adjustments, geopolitical factors remained a key factor influencing the crude oil market. Renewed geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East triggered a temporary rebound in international crude oil prices. However, OPEC+'s decision to continue increasing production in October, coupled with rising US oil inventories, led to continued market expectations of oversupply pressure, resulting in a lack of momentum in international oil prices.

Supply:

Sinopec's toluene operations were operating normally, with stable production and production primarily for self-use. Production and sales remained stable. As of September 26th, the East China company quoted 5,350 RMB/ton, the North China company 5,300 RMB/ton, the South China company 5,400-5,500 RMB/ton, and the Central China company 5,400 RMB/ton.

Demand Side:

According to the Sinopec Commodity Market Analysis System, as of September 28, 2025, the price of paraxylene at Sinopec Sales Company remained stable at 6,800 RMB/ton. This price applied to East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Plants at Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical were operating stably, with sales normal. This price was down 400 RMB/ton from August 29. As of September 26, the closing price of paraxylene in the Asian market was $789-791/ton FOB Korea and $814-816/ton CFR China, a decrease of $22/ton from August 28.

Market outlook

The toluene market has been generally weak recently. Pre-holiday purchasing activity was weak, and a lack of demand support led to a bearish market sentiment. Shipments from holders had been relatively steady, while downstream companies were maintaining a "consistent" approach to supply and demand, resulting in a subdued market atmosphere. Lacking clear positive or negative factors, the market is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.