According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of locally refined gasoline and diesel in Shandong Province fluctuated mainly in September. As of the end of the month, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 7,594.33 RMB/ton, with a price decline of 0.48% in September; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,599.17 RMB/ton, with a price trend increase of 1.41%.

Cost aspect: Crude oil market fluctuates and refined oil products change accordingly

The crude oil market prices fluctuated widely. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $65.72 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.22 per barrel. The crude oil market is influenced by both long and short factors. On the one hand, geopolitical factors remain an important factor affecting the crude oil market. The Russia Ukraine issue has led to a strong operation of the crude oil market. In addition, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have benefited the international oil market, resulting in an upward trend in the crude oil market. On the other hand, Saudi crude oil may increase production, leading to an increase in US crude oil inventories. In addition, with the end of the peak oil season in the US, the global economic outlook and oil demand are not optimistic, putting pressure on crude oil market prices. The crude oil market directly affects the domestic refined oil market, with domestic gasoline and diesel prices mainly fluctuating.

Supply side: Shandong's local refineries start production to increase supply of refined oil products

Recently, some facilities in the local refining industry have increased their operating loads, resulting in a slight increase in operating rates. The average operating rate of Shandong's local refining industry is around 54.5%, while the operating rate of the country's main refineries remains at around 85%. The supply of refined oil products from local refining has slightly increased, and the supply of gasoline and diesel in Shandong has risen compared to before. The market for gasoline and diesel in Shandong has fluctuated at a low level.

Demand side: There has been an increase in demand, and the overall market for gasoline and diesel has slightly risen

In terms of gasoline, residents' travel and other activities were mainly normal in mid to early September. In addition, the recent fluctuations in the crude oil market have intensified the wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic gasoline market, resulting in further setbacks in transactions. In addition, the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, resulting in a volatile and downward trend in the gasoline market. In late September, due to the upcoming National Day holiday, intermediaries are more active in purchasing, and the gasoline market has risen. In terms of diesel, there has been an increase in rainy weather recently, which has weakened terminal demand. However, the autumn harvest in September is gradually beginning, and agricultural oil consumption has increased compared to before. Infrastructure and logistics are relatively normal. After entering September, the fishing ban period in the north will end, and ship oil has increased compared to before. The diesel market has slightly improved.

The recent peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States has ended, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. The situation in Russia and Ukraine is tense, and international oil prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, which will increase cost support for the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has continued to increase, and the supply of refined oil products is loose. In addition, gasoline demand has increased due to holiday support, and gasoline market prices may slightly rise; The demand for diesel has increased compared to before, and diesel prices may rise in the later period.

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