Price trend

In September, the overall price of polyester filament showed a gradual decline. As of September 28, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6,500-6,800 RMB/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7,800-8,100 RMB/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6,800-7,000 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

Insufficient cost support: Although OPEC+'s planned October production increase fell short of expectations, the restart of some PTA units after maintenance increased supply pressure, leading to a decline in spot prices and a slight drop in ethylene glycol prices. Weak raw material prices left polyester filament prices with little momentum for cost increases.

Demand was weak: The recovery in demand during the traditional "golden September and silver October" peak season had been weak. While operating rates at downstream weaving companies had rebounded, they remained lower than the same period last year. Grey fabric inventories remained high, and new orders had not seen a significant increase. Purchases were primarily small, just-in-time orders, resulting in weak polyester filament production and sales data.

Supply-side pressure was significant: Despite coordinated production cuts by major manufacturers in the early stages, the industry's operating rate remained at a relatively high 91.3%, putting significant supply pressure. Furthermore, over time, some companies, driven by cash flow and market share considerations, had limited their willingness to continue large-scale production cuts, gradually weakening supply-side support for prices.

Rising Inventory Pressure: The market was plagued by high inventories throughout early and mid-September. As of September 18th, factory inventories of POY, FDY, and DTY reached highs of 20.6 days, 28.8 days, and 31.5 days, respectively. To alleviate inventory pressure, polyester mills had been forced to offer continuous discounts and promotions. Due to continued sluggish production and sales, inventory pressure on polyester filament mills continued to increase. To alleviate inventory pressure, some companies resorted to discounts and promotions, further suppressing market prices.

Cautious market sentiment: In the absence of substantial positive news on cost, demand and supply, the market was in a wait-and-see mood. The industry's concerns about "long-term decline" were intensifying. Both buyers and sellers were not very enthusiastic about trading, which made it difficult for prices to rise significantly.

Future outlook:

SunSirs believes that prices will be volatile and weaker in the short term. Downstream weaving companies were sluggish in purchasing activity, primarily focusing on replenishing inventory to meet demand. Polyester filament mills were experiencing low production and sales rates, leading to rising inventory pressures. Meanwhile, prices for upstream raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol were fluctuating and weak, further weakening cost support. Furthermore, market concerns about inventory accumulation during the National Day holiday intensified, prompting companies to strongly reduce inventory and ship goods, potentially continuing to offer discounts and promotions, suppressing prices.

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