Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic 1# lead ingot market rose in June 2025, with an average price of 16,475 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 17,020 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 3.31%.

On June 30th, the SunSirs’ Lead Index was 103.58 points, a decrease of 0.23 points from the previous day, a decrease of 22.71% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (November 29, 2016), and an increase of 38.79% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

Analysis review

At the beginning of the month, the overall fluctuation was not significant, but the price center continued to move up at a slow pace, indicating that in the market's supply-demand tug of war, multiple forces had a slight advantage, which in turn pushed prices to show a moderate upward trend. The fluctuation range of lead prices in the middle of the month was relatively narrow. Although prices had shown a slight downward trend, the price center still moved up at a slow pace, and the lead price trend showed a strong bias. At the end of the month, some refineries began to undergo maintenance for primary lead, resulting in a decrease in supply and an increase in lead prices.

Supply side

The supply situation of domestic lead concentrate remained stable, the production process of mining enterprises was progressing in an orderly manner, and the supply of raw materials was abundant. However, some lead smelting enterprises were affected by factors such as equipment maintenance and environmental inspections, which had limited the release of production capacity to a certain extent. This slowed down the growth rate of lead ingot spot output, and the spot supply in the market tended to be tight, providing strong support for the rise of lead prices.

Demand side

According to the operating rate data of lead-acid batteries, there was still a slight upward trend, but the overall market terminal consumption situation had not shown substantial improvement, and some enterprises were looking forward to the market recovery in July.

Market outlook

As the traditional peak sales season for electric bicycles approached, the fundamentals of the lead market showed some signs of improvement recently. However, the overall market was still in a weak supply-demand situation, so it is recommended to treat the increase in lead prices with caution.

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