According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs: In May 2025, the domestic 1# lead ingot market fell, and the average price in the domestic market was 16,790 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 16,475 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 1.88%.

At the beginning of May, the lead price showed a weak start due to the fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment. After that, it gradually stabilized and rebounded in the middle of the month, fluctuating and oscillating. At the end of the month, a sharp correction broke through the recent new low price.

Supply side

At the beginning of the month, the output of primary lead smelting enterprises maintained a stable output, and the overall supply of the lead market did not show a significant reduction.

By mid-May, the primary lead field was hit to a certain extent. Due to the advancement of environmental protection inspections and safety production rectification work in some lead mining areas, mining activities were restricted, which directly led to the supply of lead concentrate becoming tight. Affected by this, some primary lead smelting enterprises had to reduce production load due to insufficient raw material supply, which in turn slowed down the supply growth rate of the primary lead market significantly. At the same time, the overall growth rate of recycled lead production was relatively limited, making it difficult to fill the rapidly growing demand gap in the market. Against this background, lead prices fluctuated and gradually rebounded.

By the end of May, although the supply side showed a contraction trend, the weakness on the demand side was more prominent. The contraction on the supply side is difficult to effectively support the lead price, and the overall supply pattern of the market is still in a loose state, so the lead price has adjusted.

Demand side

At present, it is the off-season for lead consumption, and the demand situation of downstream lead-acid battery companies is relatively weak. The number of new orders in the terminal market continues to be low, and the operating enthusiasm of production companies is generally not high. After resuming production, some companies did not reach the state of full-load production, but arranged production plans based on sales, that is, maintaining the "production based on sales" business model, and the purchase of raw materials only meets basic production needs, adopting a rigid demand procurement strategy.

Future forecast

It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate in the future. From the supply side, the scale of production reduction of recycled lead is gradually expanding due to the tight supply of raw materials; at the same time, some refineries in the field of primary lead are also undergoing maintenance. These factors have provided support for lead prices to a certain extent. However, the demand side is currently in the off-season, battery companies are cautious in purchasing, and there is great pressure from inventory backlogs, which in turn puts downward pressure on lead prices.

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