Price trend:

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs: As of October 31, the price of 1# lead was 17,256 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.43% compared with the lead price of 17,330 RMB/ton on October 27.

Analysis review

In the futures market, as of October 31, the Shanghai lead market was showing a fierce battle between bulls and bears in the short term. From a technical analysis perspective, the Shanghai lead price had successfully broken through the key resistance level of 17,400 RMB/ton. If it can hold firmly above this level, it is expected to further challenge the 17,500 RMB/ton mark.

Supply Side

Recently, the resumption of refinery production remained slow, which had led to some improvement in the tight market supply situation, but the overall relief was extremely limited.

Demand Side:

With lead prices remaining high, some battery manufacturers temporarily had high inventory levels due to ample prior purchases. These companies were also concerned about future lead price trends, fearing a downturn that could lead to inventory devaluation. Based on these considerations, these battery manufacturers recently planned to suspend production for 3-5 days to mitigate potential market risks.

Market Forecast:

The resumption of production at refineries was slow. However, in the context of high lead prices, some large battery manufacturers had opted for concentrated production shutdowns to cope with the pressure. Meanwhile, the price difference between spot and futures prices remained high, prompting traders holding goods to choose delivery, which had alleviated liquidity risks in the near term to some extent. With increased supply and decreased demand in the market, the temporary supply-demand imbalance in the lead market is expected to improve, and lead prices are anticipated to undergo a slight adjustment at high levels in the short term.

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