According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of locally refined gasoline and diesel in Shandong was mainly volatile in mid July. As of 2021, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 7,926.17 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.62% in mid July; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,812.67 RMB/ton, with a price trend decline of 0.70%.

Cost aspect: Crude oil prices fluctuate mainly, and refined oil products change accordingly

The crude oil market prices are mainly fluctuating. As of the 18th, the settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $67.34 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.27 per barrel. The crude oil market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors. On the one hand, OPEC+has released its annual world oil outlook and lowered its energy demand expectations, putting pressure on oil prices. On the other hand, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to increased sanctions against Russia by the United States, and the United States will impose a 30% tariff on most imported goods from the European Union and Mexico from August 1st, causing fluctuations in the crude oil market. The crude oil market directly affects the domestic refined oil market, and there is little change in the domestic gasoline and diesel prices.

Supply side: Shandong's local refining operation is normal, and there is little change in refined oil products

Recently, there has been little change in the operating rate of local refineries. The average operating rate of Shandong's local refineries is around 52%, and the operating rate of the country's main refineries has risen to around 84%. The supply of refined oil products from local refineries has slightly increased, but the operating rate of Shandong's local refineries has remained at a medium low level, providing some support for the refined oil market. The supply of gasoline and diesel in Shandong has not changed much.

Demand side: The overall market for gasoline and diesel is volatile, with a focus on essential needs

In terms of gasoline, recent activities such as residents' travel have been normal, and coupled with the recent fluctuations in the crude oil market, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic gasoline market has intensified, resulting in further setbacks in transactions. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand, leading to fluctuations in the gasoline market. In terms of diesel, the recent increase in rainy weather has weakened terminal demand, and the summer harvest has gradually ended. Agricultural oil consumption has decreased compared to before, but diesel inventory pressure is not high. Infrastructure and logistics are relatively normal, and the diesel market trend has slightly declined.

Recently, both long and short factors have jointly affected the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. International oil prices will remain volatile in the short term, which will provide certain cost support for the domestic refined oil market. Domestically, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, the supply of refined oil products is loose, and the demand for gasoline is relatively normal, resulting in mainly volatile gasoline market prices; The demand for diesel has declined compared to before, and diesel prices may slightly decrease in the later period.

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