Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the toluene market fluctuated and fell from July 14 to July 21, 2025. On July 14th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5,560 RMB/ton, and on July 21st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5,520 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.72%. The toluene market fluctuated downward this cycle, and the focus of negotiations had fallen. The weak trend of crude oil last week had a certain impact on market sentiment. The overall sales performance in Shandong region was poor, with low purchasing enthusiasm in the oil blending and chemical industries, and weak market operation due to demand drag. The market in East China was generally bearish during the week, putting pressure on the market. The demand in southern China was weak, refinery shipments were poor, and the market was operating toe be weaker.

Analysis review

On the cost side:

During this cycle, crude oil prices fluctuated at a low level. On the one hand, OPEC+ is likely to maintain a significant increase in production in August and September, and the tension in the Middle East had eased compared to before. As a result of this news, the international oil market trend declined; On the other hand, the market's concerns about the US tariff negotiations had eased to some extent, and major institutions had a pessimistic view of the demand outlook. The demand side may be difficult to change, and the crude oil market remained weak. As of July 18th, international crude oil futures closed down. The settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $66.05 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September was $69.28 per barrel.

Supply side:

Sinopec's toluene enterprise was operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of July 21st, East China Company quoted 5,500 RMB/ton, North China Company quoted 5,500 RMB/ton, South China Company quoted 5,550-5,600 RMB/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5,550 RMB/ton.

Demand side:

On July 21st, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of p-xylene, with the current execution price of 7,250 RMB/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other units were operating stably and sales were normal. The price remains unchanged compared to July 14th. As of July 18th, the closing prices of the p-xylene market in Asia were $814-816/ton FOB Korea and $839-841/ton CFR China, an increase of $3/ton from July 11th.

Future outlook:

The recent weak trend of crude oil has dragged down market sentiment. Recent market news on the supply side indicated that some devices would be put into operation, and the market expects supply to be relatively loose. From the demand side, the overall demand for downstream oil blending and chemical industries was weak, and the demand side was bearish. Overall, the supply and demand were bearish, and it is expected that the toluene market will operate to be weaker.

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