According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of locally refined gasoline and diesel in Shandong Province first rose and then fell in late June. As of the end of the month, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 8,049.17 RMB/ton, with a price decline of 0.01% in late June; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 7,023 RMB/ton, with a price trend increase of 0.60%.

Cost aspect: Crude oil prices rise and fall sharply, and refined oil products change accordingly

The crude oil market prices have surged and plummeted. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the August WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $65.24 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $67.73 per barrel. The crude oil market fluctuates greatly, mainly due to the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. As the situation escalates and cools down, crude oil prices correspondingly rise and fall sharply, with high volatility. The crude oil market directly affects the domestic refined oil market, with domestic gasoline and diesel prices rising first and then falling.

Supply side: Shandong's local refining operation is normal, and there is little change in refined oil products

Recently, there has been little change in the operating rate of the main refineries, and the supply of resources is relatively normal. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries is around 51%, and they are operating at a medium to low level. The maintenance equipment of domestic main refineries has been restarted, and the operating rate of main refineries has increased to about 84%. Some refineries in Shandong still have maintenance plans, which may drive the overall operating rate to remain at a low level. The supply of gasoline and diesel in Shandong has not changed much.

Demand side: There is still support for the overall volatile market of gasoline and diesel

In terms of gasoline, recent activities such as residents' travel have been relatively normal. In addition, gasoline is at a low inventory level, and with the significant rise in crude oil prices, refineries are mostly operating to raise prices; In the later stage, the crude oil market fell back, and the market's wait-and-see atmosphere intensified, causing further setbacks in transactions. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand. Overall, the gasoline market first rose and then fell, with little overall change. In terms of diesel, the recent increase in rainy weather has weakened terminal demand, and the summer harvest has gradually ended. Agricultural oil consumption has decreased compared to before, but diesel inventory pressure is not high. Infrastructure and logistics are relatively normal, following the rise and then fall of the crude oil market, and the diesel market has slightly increased.

Market forecast: The recent geopolitical situation will continue to affect international oil prices, and in the short term, the international oil market will remain mainly volatile, which will play a guiding role in the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, there is not much change in the short-term refinery operating rate, and the supply of refined oil is normal. In addition, the demand for gasoline and diesel is still acceptable, and the gasoline market prices are mainly fluctuating. In the later stage, diesel prices may not change much.

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