Price Trend
According to data from SunSirs, in November, domestic polysilicon does not keep strong as it does in October. The price fell slightly with cooling market atmosphere. The pressure on the balance of supply and demand increases. Up to 15th November, SunSirs’ data shows that the average price of domestic polysilicon applied for solar energy has reduced by 1.06%. The average external quotation of enterprises is RMB 60,000-63,000 yuan/ton, and the current price has dropped by about 22% compared with last year. At present, domestic Monocrystalline silicon is still stable, and the price range of dense materials is RMB 70,000-75,000 million yuan/ton. The price difference of Monocrystalline silicon is not much different from that of October.
Market Analysis
Supply Side: In the first half of the month, the domestic polysilicon supply is sufficient. Up to this week, the domestic polysilicon enterprises reach the peak of the operating rate. The equipment for the early maintenance has basically started with some left enterprises having not recovered to full production. However, the overall supply of the market is still slightly larger than the demand, especially for product with a high proportion of polysilicon. As for price, the current price of polysilicon is still at a high level. Although the price tends to be loose, but there is not much decline. The main reason is that the current inventory of polysilicon materials in the silicon material plant has not been greatly improved. The company does not have the willingness to reduce inventory. Even if the downstream ingot companies cut the operating rate or even shut down, the price of polysilicon has not significantly reduced this week.
Demand Side: Since November, polysilicon demand has gradually cooled down, but there is still rigid demand. However, the supply and demand of polysilicon wafers, which are defined as the downstream of polysilicon, are as unstable as polysilicon. Downstream silicon wafer manufacturers are operating at a lower rate, accounting for only about 40%. Therefore, the demand for polysilicon has been reduced due to the sharp decline of operating rates of downstream ingots and battery chips. Most of the polysilicon manufacturers have implemented pre-orders. The new order rate decreases compared with October, and the price naturally has a certain degree of decline.
Market Forecasting
SunSirs’ analysts believe that the polysilicon market is still rigid and stable. Despite the current high operating rate of enterprises, the inventory pressure of enterprises has not increased sharply, which confirms the relatively good market demand. However, the supply side is not completely risk-free, because there are some new production devices that have released as a part of the production capacity. In addition, there are still a few enterprises that are under heavy load. If the start-up load of the enterprises is further increased, the risk of oversupply may dramatically increase. In particular, the market demand has peaked currently, players in the polysilicon market cannot be overly optimistic. It is expected that the market will remain stable in the near future, but the risk of a small decrease still exists.
Related Listed Companies
GCL-Poly, Tongwei, Xinte Energy, China Metallurgical
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