According to China Energy Network, multiple polysilicon futures contracts experienced fluctuating gains last week. The near-month 2512 contract briefly surpassed the 60,000 RMB/ton threshold during intraday trading. On November 28, the main 2601 contract closed at 56,425 RMB/ton, marking a weekly increase of 5.27%.
The southwest region has now entered the dry season, with electricity prices rising across the board. Polysilicon production capacity utilization rates have declined in areas like Sichuan and Yunnan, and polysilicon shipments have also dropped significantly, providing some support to prices. According to data from Baichuan Yingfu, domestic polysilicon output in November this year was 122,000 tons, down by approximately 15,000 tons month-on-month.
In actual production and consumption, downstream enterprises tend to procure non-standard products of electronic grade 3 quality, limiting the circulation scale of standard products. Consequently, the market is closely watching whether polysilicon manufacturers, facing limited sales quotas, will allocate scarce resources to core downstream clients or opt to register new futures warehouse receipts.
The current market supply-demand dynamics have shifted. Intermediaries hold low inventories of standard delivery-grade polysilicon. Following reduced operating rates, enterprises have significantly slowed warehouse receipt issuance, potentially causing a temporary decline in near-month standard warehouse receipt supply.
Fundamentally, while supply contracts, downstream demand for polysilicon also shows signs of weakening. As the photovoltaic industry enters its off-season, the polysilicon market now faces dual weakness in both supply and demand. With downstream operating rates continuing to decline, overall wafer production is projected to drop by approximately 20% in December. GF Futures analyst Ji Yuanfei also noted that amid weak demand, downstream production schedules have significantly contracted. Wafer production is expected to plummet to 45.7GW in December, while module production will sharply decrease to 40GW.
In the spot market, polysilicon price increases have not been passed on to the module segment. Simultaneously, midstream prices have recently softened, and persistently weak purchasing momentum has led to insufficient effective demand for polysilicon. Even with recent seasonal production cuts, the boost to spot prices remains relatively limited. Data shows that on November 28, the average price of N-type dense polysilicon stood at CNY50,000 per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.
Amid weak supply and demand dynamics, polysilicon inventories continue to accumulate. Data indicates that as of the week ending November 28, polysilicon inventories rose by 10,000 tons to 281,000 tons. The simultaneous decline in production and inventory accumulation indicates genuinely weak demand.
Looking ahead, despite current production cuts in the polysilicon segment, overall supply remains ample. Coupled with subdued demand prospects, polysilicon prices face limited upside potential in the short term. Should the market's core dynamics shift, prices are likely to revert to range-bound fluctuations.
Amid persistently weakening end-demand and mounting loss pressures downstream, polysilicon fundamentals remain fragile. However, cost support remains effective, limiting downside price potential. The implementation timeline for future “anti-internal competition” policies remains uncertain, necessitating close monitoring of the actual rollout of incremental policy measures.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 3, the benchmark price of polysilicon on SunSirs was 52,000.00 RMB/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.
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